2024 NFL Week 5 Betting: New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Tips, Lines

Spread: Chieftains (-5)
Money line: Chiefs (-240), Saints (+200)
Over/Under: 43.5

Distribution in the first half: Chiefs -3.5 (Even), Saints +3.5 (-130)
First half money line: Chiefs (-190), Saints (+150)
Chiefs total points: O/U 23.5 (-125/-105)
Saints Total Points: O/U 18.5 (-125/-105)

The props

Passing by

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: Over/U: 224.5 yards (-140/+110)
Derek Carr total passing yards: O/U: 199.5 yards (-145, +115)
Mahomes' total pass TDs: O/U: 1.5 TDs (-115/-115)

Rush

Alvin Kamara Total Rushing Yards: O/U 69.5 (+110/-140)
Kareem Hunt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 44.5 (-105/-125)
Mahomes is absolutely rushing through the yards: O/U 19.5 (+105/-135)

Reception

Travis Kelce total receiving yards: O/U 59.5 (-115/-125)
Rashid Shaheed total receiving yards: O/U 49.5 (-105/-125)
Chris Olave receiving total yards: O/U 59.5 (-115/-125)
Xavier Worthy receiving total yards: O/U 44.5 (Straight/-130)
Kamara total receiving yards: O/U 34.5 (-105/-125)
Justin Watson total receiving yards: O/U 24.5 (-120/-110)
Noah Gray receiving total yards: O/U 29.5 (-130/Even)
Juwan Johnson Total reception yards: O/U 14.5 (+110/-140)
Samaje Perine total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (-130/Even)
JuJu Smith-Schuster Total reception yards: O/U 14.5 (-135/+105)
Foster Moreau receiving total yards: O/U 14.5 (-145/-130)
Hunting total receiving yards: O/U 14.5 (Straight/-130)

Seth Walder's tips for the game

Demario Davis under 8.5 tackles + assists (-110)

There are two reasons why the tackling model is way behind on Davis, with the linebacker only projected to have 6.8 combined tackles on Monday night: The first is playing time concerns. Davis has gone from playing almost every snap to 86% of the time this year. He's also currently recovering from a hamstring injury that kept him out in Week 4. The Saints could give the veteran a few playoff appearances here or there, and even if that means one less tackle expected, that makes a big difference. Davis also doesn't generate as many tackles. He has made tackles on 11% of plays over the last two years, which is below the 14% average we would expect from an inside linebacker.

Will Harris over 3.5 tackles + assists (-135)

Harris is all over the field and plays safety most of the time, but also sometimes operates in the slot and occasionally even as an outside corner or center back. While this hasn't necessarily translated into great tackle numbers this year (he has 14 tackles in four games and has exceeded that limit twice), being closer to the line of scrimmage at times certainly increases his tackling opportunities. And the most important factor: He doesn't leave the field. He has played 100% of the snaps this season. My model projects him at just over 4.5 tackles + assists and if anything I think it's underestimating him considering it still takes into account last year when he barely played.

Jaylen Watson under 4.5 tackles + assists (-115)

Watson has generated tackles on 10% of his defensive snaps this season, the 11th-highest rate for an outside corner with at least 80 snaps played. But it is more difficult for him to defeat them. I would like to note that the Saints are running the ball at the highest rate in the league (55%). This is still true if we exclude situations where they are very likely to win or lose, as I should note – and every time they do, Watson has a smaller chance of winning the ball or losing the ball on and the clock continues to run. Additionally, Watson did not post high tackle rates in 2023, so there is also some chance that his 2024 numbers are at least partially unrealistic. My model projects him to have 3.9 tackles + assists, so that's not a huge difference from the market, but it's at least a strong lead.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 primetime games. Derek Carr is 0-5 ATS in his last five primetime games (0-3 ATS with the Saints)

• Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS in primetime home games.

• The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. They are 16-6 ATS in that role since 2018 and 29-13 ATS since 2014.

• Since 2021, the Unders are 11-1 when the Saints have extra rest (8-1 under Dennis Allen).

• Derek Carr is 34-23 ATS in his career when scoring at least four points (1-1 ATS with the Saints).

• Underdogs with at least five points are 18-4 ATS (11-11 overall) this season.

• The Unders in prime time are 78-49-1 over the last three seasons (8-7 this season).