MLB Playoffs: Why Yankees Should Want Orioles in the ALDS

The Yankees are in the driver's seat for the first time in a long time this October. With the top seed in the AL, they enjoy home-field advantage at least until the World Series, and while they can't choose their ALDS opponent, they know the Astros won't be seen until the ALCS (if at all). ). The question remains whether the Yankees would rather see the Orioles or the Royals come to the Bronx on Saturday, and I tend to think I'd prefer the Birds.

Firstly, they are beaten up. The club lost three starters in June, and no matter how good Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are, that gradual deterioration in the rotation was a big part of the Orioles' second-half slide. According to ERA and FIP, the Baltimore rotation was among the top 10 in baseball in the first half and has been the definition of mediocre ever since.

Now we know that even Rodriguez won't be available at all in the playoffs, making a thin rotation even thinner. With Burnes starting (and stunning) the first game of the Wild Card Series against Kansas City, the Yankees will avoid Baltimore's best arm until Game 2 of a hypothetical ALDS on Monday. If the series went to five, Burnes might be able to return with normal rest, but the pressure would be on to win both Burnes' start in Game 2 and another.

So we've got a pitching rotation that we're going to go through and we've got a lineup that slowed down a lot in the second half. The team went just 33-33 over the final 66 games of the year, and while their runs per game didn't drop much – 4.9 to 4.7 – the team wRC+ dropped six points. Cedric Mullins and Ramón Urías both had strong second halves, their gains offset by losses in the big lineup spots. Check out the season breakdowns for yesterday's starting lineup:

So in net we can see why the team's offensive performance has dropped slightly, but in practice this loss of performance from four of your top five batsmen has, in my opinion, a multiplier effect on the entire squad. Yes, any deep playoff run requires an unsung hero or two, but if Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres all see a 40+ wRC+ drop in the ALDS (analogous to the 2022 ALCS), we wouldn't be confident about it the team's chances.

The Royals won Game 1 of the Wild Card Series yesterday and the Yankees will be the favorites against whatever team they end up facing. Overall, I'm much more concerned about the starting pitching advantage the Royals have over the Orioles – we've seen periods where the Yankee lineup disappears for three or four games, and in a five-game series That can be all it takes.

Of course, the Yankees have no control over their opponent, although I think the Orioles' declining offense and struggling rotation make them an ideal rival. For the first time in the Aaron Judge era, the road to the World Series runs through the Bronx, but the Yankees still have to beat everyone they come across.