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Over the next few days, northern lights could be visible in Michigan and even in Pennsylvania, Iowa and Oregon.

A series of solar events – including the most powerful solar flare since 2017 – have experts paying attention to the impact, which may include the spectacles in the night sky.

As of midday Thursday, geomagnetic storm forecasts for Thursday and the next few days had already reached levels where the Northern Lights could be visible in parts of Michigan. Now authorities are forecasting higher, “strong” storm strengths – G3 on their scale to G5 – from Thursday evening into the weekend.

So what does that mean?

“If we reach G1 levels or higher, we could expect to see auroras in areas along the U.S.-Canada border, including parts of North Dakota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan,” said Bryan Brasher, project manager for the Administration's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Space Weather Prediction Center.

The higher the rating, the further south the northern lights were seen, according to the prediction center.

And in the next few days, auroras could be seen over many northern states and some parts of the lower Midwest as far south as Oregon, according to the center.

More: This week, Northern Lights are forecast for the northern US and Midwest as solar flares increase

The most powerful solar flare in years occurred Thursday morning and appeared to be related to another solar event, Brasher said. The second event – explained in layman's terms – is that a tiny part of the sun, plasma and magnetic fields are ejected.

Such ejection directed at Earth can cause geomagnetic storms that can disrupt power grids and satellites and cause Aurora Borealis, the Northern Lights.

And there had been several such ejections before Thursday's eruption, Brasher said.

A G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm warning has been issued for Thursday, with peak activity likely to occur overnight, Brasher said.

The latest forecasts now call for a G3 storm watch from Oct. 4-6, but since the forecast center uses Coordinated Universal Time, that means the G3 watch will actually begin Thursday evening in local time, Brasher confirmed in an email the clocks have been updated.

If the first ejection arrives earlier than models showed in the late afternoon, “increased geomagnetic activity” could be possible this evening into the early hours local time, Brasher said.

“The timing is very uncertain, so we never say never,” he said in his email.

Although forecasts are subject to change, the auroral forecast for Thursday and Friday released by the Space Weather Prediction Center early Thursday evening showed line of sight reaching Michigan's southern border.

The chance of an aurora was forecast to be low in the southernmost part of the Lower Peninsula, but the forecast showed that northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula had a better chance, while still technically classified as low.

There will be some patches of cloud in the Upper Peninsula overnight Thursday that could reduce visibility, but there is still a chance there will be “some pockets of clearing,” said Megan Varcie, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service from White Lake.

Clouds are expected to push into mid-Michigan and subside around 4 a.m. Otherwise, the Detroit metro area is expected to have a fairly clear night.

The next few nights should also be reasonably clear, she said.

Outside of the auroral potential, the Space Weather Prediction Center has noted that the next few days could bring concerns such as additional drag on satellites, intermittent GPS problems, power grid voltage irregularities and false alarms, particularly poleward of the 50th degree of geomagnetic latitude.

On By John Fenwick

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