UFC 307 Predictions – MMA Fighting

UFC 307 feels like a stopgap in some ways.

To be fair, there's nothing wrong with the title fights on offer on Saturday. Yes, Alex Pereira was supposed to face Magomed Ankalaev, but Khalil Rountree Jr. has done more than enough to warrant a title shot, and stylistically this main event promises to be a crowd favorite.

And yes, it feels gross that Julianna Peña is heading back into title contention against Raquel Pennington after nearly 800 days on the sidelines, but other than Kayla Harrison, there's anyone else in the women's 135-pound category that you're rooting for want to fight? the title? Norma Dumont? The matchmakers work with what they have.

But if we're being honest with ourselves, we want to see Pereira take care of business, Pennington and Peña resolve their issues without controversy, and Harrison impress enough in her main card fight against Ketlen Vieira to set up the most intriguing women's bantamweight title fight since Peñas Rematch with Nunes.

So keep your fingers crossed nothing strange happens.

In other major card action, GOAT Jose Aldo looks set to stop rising bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, and Roman Dolidze returns to middleweight to face secondary contender Kevin Holland.

What: UFC 307

Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City

When: Saturday, October 5th. Early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET with three fights on ESPN+. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and ESPNews, followed by the five-fight main card at 10:00 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

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(The numbers in brackets indicate the representation MMA Fighting Global Rankings And Pound-for-pound rankingIngs)

Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (10)

Alex Pereira by knockout. Completed.

Now that we've got that predictable prediction out of the way, let's explore a few less likely scenarios for the sake of entertainment.

1. Khalil Rountree turns the tables on “Poatan,” confusing him in the standup for a round or two before taking him down with a no-doubt knockout shot to shock the world. I mean, he's called “The Glory Killer” for a reason and there's no bigger former Glory star right now than Pereira.
2. Pereira and Rountree fight heart and soul for 25 minutes, giving us one of the best fights of the year – no, of all time, with the winner narrowly claiming a decision victory. It's hard to imagine these two throwing for five rounds and not landing a doomsday hit, but you never know.
3. Pereira fools everyone by mixing up martial arts, channeling his mentor Glover Teixeira and taking Rountree to the mat at will. This DI All-American/ADCC Champion hybrid version of Pereira bullies its way to a 50-45 victory, much to the bemusement of the assembled Utahns.

There's a sick group of me that wants to see Scenario 3, but I've never been one to go for a long throw, so let's play it safe and say the champion takes out Rountree in the second round to settle up to prepare a big duel in 2025.

Choose: Pereira

Raquel Pennington (2, P4P-9) vs. Julianna Peña

Julianna Peña recently told MMA Junkie that she doesn't believe in altitude training because she didn't feel any ill effects at the last two altitude competitions in Colorado and Utah. Maybe someone should remind her that she lost both fights?

Well, one of those losses was a decision to DeAnna Bennett, which Peña still contests to this day, the other was an armbar submission loss to Valentina Shevchenko, so there's no shame in that either. But the fact is, she fights at 0-2 at altitude, and that can't be ignored in a fight that will likely last five rounds and against an opponent who was born and raised in Colorado.

Peña essentially swims to Atlantis to fight Aquaman.

Admittedly, Raquel Pennington doesn't exactly give off Jason Momoa vibes, but I'm not sure that's a requirement to beat Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will want to apply pressure to get a win, but Pennington has rarely been overwhelmed by an opponent other than Amanda Nunes. And Peña is not Nunes.

The good news is that I think this stylistic duel will be more entertaining than Pennington's bout with Mayra Bueno Silva (what a high bar) and we should end up with a definitive winner so we can move on to Pennington vs. Harrison ( Spoiler!).

Pennington by decision.

Choose: Pennington

Jose Aldo (7) versus Mario Bautista

It's going to be kind of strange watching Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista go head-to-head because there's so much of Aldo's DNA in this current generation of lighter fighters. Bautista was in high school when top-rated Aldo was tearing up WEC and UFC competitions. Now he has to face the best there ever was.

While that's an unfair comparison, the fact is that Aldo only lost to the very best. Merab Dvalishvili. Peter Yan. Marlon Moraes. Alexander Volkanovski. Max Holloway. Conor McGregor. With the exception of the loss to Moraes (the closest decision you can find), these are all UFC champions. Bautista is great, but a future UFC champion? I'm skeptical.

I could be looking at this completely wrong. Perhaps their fight signals both the emergence of Bautista as a true contender and a clear picture of Aldo's current ceiling. But Bautista hasn't yet proven himself against the elite competition. So if anyone needs a reality check, it's him. Moving from Benito Lopez, Guido Cannetti, Da'Mon Blackshear and a mindless Ricky Simon to Aldo will give Bautista some serious whiplash.

Look for Aldo to get just a little sharper and smarter on his way to an entertaining decision win.

Choose: Aldo

Kayla Harrison (1, P4P-12) vs. Ketlen Vieira (4)

Kayla Smash!

We talk all the time about athleticism being a cheat code, and that's just one reason why Kayla Harrison is expected to destroy Ketlen Vieira. Add in a work ethic that ranks in the 99th percentile, and you can understand why many fans are just counting the days until she has UFC gold around her waist.

Vieira is not a walk in the park, we should be clear about that. Aside from a disappointing performance against Irene Aldana, Vieira has had her way with the best, winning over former champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate and one-time title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara McMann. She is a perfectly respectable B-tier contender.

But Harrison has been a prime contender since Day 1, and if her win over Holly Holm is any indication, she's at or near the peak of her powers. That's bad news for Vieira, who will test Harrison early before ultimately succumbing to an unstoppable force.

Choose: Harrison

Roman Dolidze (14) against Kevin Holland

Roman Dolidze should have just stayed at light heavyweight, right?

He would give up his size, but due to a last-minute decision over Anthony Smith, the 36-year-old Georgian was realistically just a few wins away from a title shot in a thin division. The middleweight division has been far more competitive in recent years and in Kevin Holland, Dolidze isn't even fighting a true 185. On the other hand, perhaps like in Holland, it's just a matter of cashing the checks and going home to the family. Respect.

Holland has made progress with his fierce defense, but I can see Dolidze exploiting this once-fatal weakness and choosing to push Holland to the canvas. Dolidze is hittable, so Holland's exciting hitting style could carry him to a win if he stays on his feet. Tough matchup to call.

I don't like how much size Holland is giving up in this division and I think it will be his undoing. Dolidze mixes powerful punches with timely tackles to put Holland on the cards and jump back into the middleweight contender pool.

Choose: Dolidze

Preliminary rounds

Stephen Thompson (10) defeated. Joaquin Buckley (15)

Marina Rodriguez (7) defeated. Iasmin Lucindo (14)

Cesar Almeida defeated. Ihor Potieria

Alexander Hernandez defeated. Austin Hubbard

Ryan Spann defeated. Ovince Saint Preux

Carla Esparza defeated. Tecia Pennington

Court McGee defeated. Tim means