Fourteen tropical depression forms in the Gulf

Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and now poses a major hurricane threat to Florida, just over a week after Helene moved through the region.

In its initial statement on the new system, the National Hurricane Center said that “there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday.”

Hurricane and storm surge watches are expected to be required in parts of Florida on Sunday.

New forms of depression: Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently becoming more organized several hundred miles south of Brownsville. It is expected to move east or northeast toward southwest or central Florida and then into the Atlantic Ocean.

The depression is expected to worsen this weekend and could worsen rapidly in the coming week. The next name on the list is “Milton.”

Much of the current computer forecast suggests a stronger hurricane threat is increasing for Florida, and the NHC currently forecasts the system will approach Florida as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

This system will likely pass well south of the Florida Big Bend and is not expected to bring as much lift as Helene. However, some areas that experienced storm surge from Helene could very well experience storm surge from this system, particularly from Pinellas County to Naples. There is an outside view that the storm surge may be higher than Helene brought in one or two places, particularly further south.

I​impacts forecast

Possible flooding: Rainfall is expected to arrive well in advance of this system's arrival as a frontal boundary descends into the region. Several different rain showers are expected in Florida on Sunday.

Due to the system itself, we are expecting rainfall in Florida next week, which could lead to flooding in some locations. At least 3 inches of rain is expected across much of the peninsula, but some spots could see up to 12 inches.

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Wind damage: Most new computer forecasts suggest a Category 2 or 3 hurricane could develop.

This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to the west-central or southwest coast of Florida on Tuesday evening or Wednesday, but exactly where those winds will occur and how strong they will be remains a question.

All hurricane preparations or recovery and reconstruction efforts should be completed by Tuesday evening. After that time, these efforts could be dangerous.

How much damage is caused depends on how strong the system becomes. While water temperatures are warm enough for development, wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico could pose a barrier to the development of a tropical depression. Wind shear could limit the speed at which this system develops.

Rip currents: Strong onshore winds along Florida's Atlantic coast will create a risk of rip currents over the weekend and into the early weeks. These currents can occur even in the absence of precipitation.

A rip current threat could develop along the Gulf Coast from Tampa southward early this week.

The western Caribbean and Gulf are typical areas for tropical development in October. Click this link to see how hurricane season typically changes in the new month.

Check back with Weather.com in the coming days for updates as details become clearer.