State of emergency: Tropical Storm Milton is expected to hit Florida as a major hurricane on Wednesday

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Although Tropical Storm Milton is still in the western Gulf of Mexico, it is packing winds of up to 50 mph this morning. The track shows a slow movement and development for the next day. Then the forward speed and power increases in very warm water.

This morning it is expected to appear near Tampa through Wednesday and will likely reach the intensity of a Category 3 or 4 major hurricane. This area was flooded by Hurricane Helene last week and is still recovering.

This storm could have winds in excess of 110 miles per hour. As a result, the central part of the state may experience devastating storm surge in excess of 10 feet, flooding rainfall and destructive tornadoes.

Emergency:

Governor DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 35 counties in Central and South Florida.

Review of the 2024 Atlantic tropical season so far:

Named Storms

1. Alberto June 19-20; Peak as a tropical storm
2. Beryl June 28th 11; Peaked as a Category 5 hurricane
3. Chris June 30th to July 1st; Peak as a tropical storm
4. Debby August 3rd to 9th; Peaked as a Category 1 hurricane
5. Ernesto August 12th to 20th; Peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
6. Francine September 9th to 12th; Peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
7. Gordon September 11th to 17th; Tropical storm
8. Helen September 24th to 27th; Category 4 hurricane. Landfall with winds of 140 mph
9. Joyce September 27-30; Tropical storm
10. Kirk September 29th to ; Category 4 hurricane: Ocean with winds of 145 mph
11. Leslie October 2nd to ; Category 1 hurricane
12. Milton October 5th to

Tropical IR satellite loop

Tropical Storm Milton IR satellite

National Hurricane Center update at 5 a.m. EDT

• LOCATION…23.0N 94.9W
• ABOUT 355 MI…565 KM W-NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
• APPROXIMATELY 845 MI…1360 KM WSW FROM TAMPA, FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
• CURRENT MOTION…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT… 1003 MB… 29.62 INCHES

National Hurricane Center forecast track/cone

Compare this to the following model maps:

Storm surge potential

This simulation takes into account the NHC track and timing with the tidal cycle. It suggests over 10 feet of water is entering Tampa Bay and the coast near Sarasota.

Computer model Forecast intensity

The current consensus is that Category 3 or 4 intensity may be reached before it makes landfall in Florida. This would mean wind speeds over 110 miles per hour.

Computer model prediction tracks

Windy widget

HWRF model prediction track

ECMWF (European Model) forecast track

Landing suggested by HWRF model

This is the later solution showing Thursday morning's landfall.

ECMWF Model Proposed Landfall

This is the earlier solution showing landfall on Wednesday, which is more consistent with the National Hurricane Center's forecast.

Precipitation potential

The path could bring up to 12 inches of rain across Central Florida, with a sharp boundary to the north. This can change if there are fluctuations along the route.

Please share your thoughts and pictures/videos of the best weather or just stay in touch via social media.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH:

Baltimore Magazine Readers' Choice The Best of Baltimore

Plan for a weather-dependent stem assembly

Severe weather: Storm Smart in October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

Click here to see more and submit an inquiry for your school.

SEE ALSO

Equinox does NOT equal daylight… Not yet

SECOND OF FOUR COMPLETE SUPERMOONS

Click here to view the full report:

Maryland Trek 11, Day 7, completed Saturday, August 10th

We've raised OVER $105,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND we're still raising more

The annual event: Hike and bike 329 miles in 7 days between Wisp Summit and Ocean City.

Every day we honor a child and their family's cancer journey.

The fundraising is intended for Just In Power Kids: funding free holistic programs. I have never taken a dime and never will. It's all up to our nonprofit.

Click here or on the image to donate:

REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF