Week 5: The Colts' Opposing QB: An Analysis by Trevor Lawrence

Thanks to them nflFastR Project and NFL NextGen Stats for the current data sources.

For those of you new to this space, I will be posting key QB stats each week to assess how well the upcoming opposing QB has performed. Yes, the O-line, receivers and play-calling affect these numbers, but they are primarily QB measures. I'll probably change the charts throughout the season. The comment will be short, but please let me know in the comments that statistics aren't everything. (Click on the charts for a larger view)

DASHBOARD

I predicted that Trevor Lawrence would take a step forward and be a top-10 QB this year, and so far that prediction has aged like milk. After four weeks, he has some of the worst numbers in the league. Let's take a look.

arsr,
EDP,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
tttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
Yacoe,
Yes,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1.%,
td%,
To%,
epa/d,
psr

He was supported by a more than competent running game as the Jags implement a balanced offensive approach (11th Arsr, 17th Edp).
He's faced above-average pass defenses (17th Opd), but they've been easier than what he saw last year (5th toughest).
Lawrence faced above-average pressure and had about average throwing time (13 Pr.%, 19 TTT). However, he still manages the third-longest attempts in the league (3rd Adot). One of my predictions was that the Jags would rely on shorter passes to be successful, and so far they haven't.
His accuracy was terrible, in part leading to his receivers getting less yac than expected, and both drivers pushed his yards per attempt down (31. Cpoe, 31. Yacoe, 25. Ypa).
His abandoned attempt rate is above average, but not terrible (12. AA%). The problem is that he doesn't move enough and gets sacked too often (21st scr%, 8th sck%), which reduces his yards per aborted attempt (24th yaa), which in turn reduces his overall yard efficiency (27th). .ny/D).
With low yards per dropback, it is difficult to score first downs and TDs (23rd 1%, 21st TD%).

The only positive thing about his game is his ability to protect the ball (31%), but that alone isn't enough to overcome all of the drawbacks, and he ranks 26th in EPA efficiency and 27th . Place in pass success rate and pushing for a spot in the bottom 5 QB clubs.

HOW WELL?

Check out the moving average trend lines on these charts. They're all going in the wrong direction. Week 1 against Miami was a promising start, but the next three games fell through.

HOW FAR?

Over the last 11 weeks, Lawrence has been throwing the ball deep, and that certainly helps him achieve long average completion depth.

But that long completion depth doesn't increase his yards per attempt. I mean, look at this graph, there are two outliers; Tua, who passes very short and gets a great YPA, and Lawrence, who passes wide and gets a terrible YPA.

TO WHO?

First-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. leads the team in receiving yards, but Christian Kirk has the most targets.

HOW EXACTLY?

Trevor's poor accuracy is basically the reason for his poor numbers. It's not the deep passes that miss the mark, but rather he went 6 for 19 on passes between 11 and 15 yards.

HOW FAST?

He used to be one of the quick short pass throwers, and things have worked out well for him in 2022. But the passing depth has increased and the throwing time has increased with it, and that wasn't a good compromise.

As the running QB era begins, this is becoming more and more common. QBs take longer to throw and produce worse results. Give me a guy who can get rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds every day.