Sean McDermott's playoff decisions weren't a mistake in the Bills' loss to the Texans

The Buffalo Bills lost a heartbreaking win to the Houston Texans with a last-second field goal. A field goal that the Bills might have been able to prevent.

Once again, head coach Sean McDermott's decision-making is under scrutiny, with many voicing their distaste for the decision to pass three times on the Buffalos' final drive. As a reminder, the game was tied with 32 seconds left in regulation time. The Bills had secured the ball on their own three-yard line with no timeouts. Houston had all three of them.
On the surface, this seems like a mistake, but I'm here to convince you otherwise.

What is an error?

Before I really get started, I would like to clarify things a little. If you wanted three runs to force Houston to burn its timeouts and try to force overtime, then I'm not saying you're wrong in wanting that. Did you want a shot at moving the ball and going from there? I understand that too.

The purpose here is not to say, “You’re wrong” or “I’m right.” Let's take a step back and look at another decision to understand what I mean. Let's imagine I'm about to flip a coin. You have to make a decision about which side is facing up. You scream “TAILS NEVER FAILS!” I let the coin fly.

It lands on heads.

Was your decision a “mistake”? Only in the context of the result. However, since your decision was made before the result, your “mistake” is understandable.
My point below is not that you are wrong. Just that we may have different preferences. Even though we disagree about the decision, I want to assure you that we are all disappointed with the outcome.

The context of the decision

Now that I've tried to insulate myself a bit from the wrath of the comments, let's address the question of why this particular decision would be better described as a preference difference rather than right/wrong.

Three run calls

Reaching three runs will almost certainly force Houston to burn its timeouts. There's a slim chance Buffalo can break free and get a big lead to continue the push. The runs probably gain a few yards. All other things being equal, gaining a few yards decreases the likelihood of Ka'imi Fairbairn making the kick. However, it is unlikely that Houston will be pushed back far enough to prevent the attempt. Running eliminates much of the risk associated with Josh Allen dropping back and fooling around in the end zone. Running the ball provides a relatively stable range of possible outcomes.

One shot and see what happens

Rather than going completely one way or the other, I've seen this idea tossed back and forth, and again, I don't agree with it. This strategy takes a little more risk than three run calls by asking for a drop back. It also allows for an increase in the chances of success if the first move goes well. This play will likely result in some yardage gain, although probably less than the first plan. It is also noteworthy that in the event of a failure on the first play, Houston kept a timeout, which played a role in the actual result. This plan comes with a bit of volatility.

Three passing plays

Let's go back to the idea that pushing the Texans back even a few yards will help them. Before the outcome comes out, take a moment to reflect on the decision you made. A 64-yard attempt gained five yards and all other results remained the same. That's three meters more than Fairbairn's personal record. It's only two meters less than the league record. The chances of success decrease the closer you get to the limit of human performance. When you're in your mid-60s, you're currently reaching the limits of human performance in the NFL. These five meters are important.

Do you think Josh Allen can find five yards on three chances with the ball in hand? That's a bet I know I'll take almost every time. A five-yard gain will likely lead to what many fans have been clamoring for: overtime. A single completed pass from three chances is likely to produce this result.

Now, passing increases volatility the most. It's three chances for an end zone disaster or an interception. It's also three chances to make a play like we saw from Keon Coleman at the start of the game. Three passes give you a chance. Misses keep time, which helps Buffalo since the next play shouldn't be a miss (even though we now know that was the case on all three).

No mistake

In our coin toss scenario, I want to point out that the probability of coin tosses is not exactly 50/50. Nevertheless, “Numbers never fail” is not a bad strategy and I wouldn’t call it a mistake. The chances are good enough to make a good decision.

As mentioned, the three passes bring some volatility to the situation. But how much? Despite Josh Allen's abysmal stats in the game, his yards per attempt were 4.37 – meaning a completion will likely still get them what they need. With a 30% completion rate, it should have been completed in three attempts, even with a garbage rate.

I could go on with hypotheses. For example, I would argue that Houston gets the ball back in similar time even if they run the ball three times. Without timeouts, they might come up with a different play than the midfield play they made and still gain the yards. It's not like the Bills allowed the Texans to make a major misplay. They gave up a small piece of the game. It is also not inconceivable that Fairbairn will set a new personal record. His kick seemed to have been good from a few meters away.

I do think that with three runs you have a better chance of forcing overtime, but not necessarily. I also think three passes increase the chance of making an impact. We lost by 13 seconds. We won by 23 seconds. Sean McDermott trusted his players and I like the decision, even if I don't like the result.