3 reasons why starting Drake Maye against Texans is a bad move

Patriots

Drake Mayes' first NFL start will come against an impressive Texans defense.

COMMENT

The Drake Maye era has officially begun.

After weeks of speculation, New England reportedly made the change at quarterback on Tuesday — benching veteran Jacoby Brissett and handing the keys of the offense to Maye.

Jerod Mayo and the Patriots' decision to regroup their offense comes amid a four-game losing streak, including the Dolphins' horrific 15-10 loss on Sunday.

Given Brissett's slow processing ability and difficulty hitting receivers deep down the field, Mayes' arm strength and athleticism could give a beleaguered offense a shot in the arm.

But the timing of the Patriots' QB succession plan is raising many eyebrows, especially at this point with a difficult 2024 season looming.

Here are three reasons why New England is making the wrong decision by turning to Maye in Week 6.

A brutal fight against the Texans

It was almost inevitable that the Patriots would turn to Maye at some point this season.

But the timing is confusing here, especially since the Patriots had a prime opportunity to start Maye in Week 5 against a terrible Dolphins team.

Despite the expected growing pains that Maye's first season in the NFL ranks will bring, a debut against a broken Dolphins offense would at least give the New England rookie some margin of error to work with.

Sure, a Dolphins team that averages a paltry 12.0 points per game could be a tomato can matchup. But a win is a win and one that would be welcomed by a rookie quarterback looking to build a foundation for the future.

Instead, Maye is now ready to take on a Texas team that boasts an impressive defensive unit.

Here are the stats for the five QBs who have played against the Texans so far this season (4-1):

Anthony Richardson (Colts) – 9-for-19, 212 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, two sacks

Caleb Williams (Bears) – 23 of 37, 174 yards, two interceptions, seven sacks

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) – 18 of 33, 169 yards, two touchdowns, one sack

Sam Darnold (Vikings) – 17-for-28, 181 yards, four touchdowns, four sacks

Josh Allen (Bills) – 9 for 30, 131 yards, one touchdown, one sack

Not exactly the softest landing spot for Maye — especially against a Houston defense with the lowest completion rate in the NFL.

Be it last week's Dolphins game or a looser schedule following this Texans matchup (Oct. 20 vs. Jacksonville, Nov. 3 at Tennessee, Nov. 10 at the Bears, Nov. 17 vs. Rams), the Patriots have had several prime opportunities To do this, allow Maye a starting role.

Instead, it's a battle against a Texas defense that has already made life difficult for some talented quarterbacks.

Good luck, boy.

A bad supporting cast

This could be in step with the previous point about Houston's strong defense.

But Maye's staff isn't exactly prepared to support him. Sunday's loss to Miami was arguably an improvement over New England's O-line group. But that's anything but a compliment.

In total, the Patriots suffered two sacks, nine QB hits and nine holding penalties against the Dolphins.

The Patriots have given up 19 sacks in five games this season, the second most in the league.

The underlying numbers are equally ugly.

“In their 1-4 start, the Patriots' offensive line has posted a pass-block win rate of 41.6%, which ranks last in the NFL,” ESPN's Mike Reiss wrote Tuesday. “Statistics in the game recorded 49 hits against Brissett, although some of those were due to Brissett holding the football too long or receivers having difficulty gaining the lead.

“Since ESPN began tracking QB pressures in 2009, only the 2022 Bears (47.3%) have allowed a higher pressure rate than this year’s Patriots (46.8%) through five games in a season.”

Maye's arm should allow him to carry the ball down the field, while his speed will likely allow him to get out of harm's way quicker than Brissett.

Still, with two pass rushers with more than 20 QB pressures this year (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter), the Texans' defense still has a lot to live up to before Sunday's matchup.

It's an abrupt departure from the “plan” the Patriots had

To be sure, it was always unlikely that the Patriots would redshirt Maye for the entire 2024 season.

Perhaps Eliot Wolf and New England's top players wouldn't quite replicate the Packers' strategy of giving a promising young quarterback plenty of time to marinate on the sidelines. But starting Maye in Week 6 couldn't have been part of the contingency plan devised in case Brissett underwhelmed.

There are signs that Maye — even as a raw and untested rookie — commanded a higher ceiling in 2024 than Brissett.

Even Mayo himself admitted that Maye had “outplayed” the veteran Brissett in pre-season. But New England stuck with Brissett and focused on the franchise's long-term prospects by refusing to throw Maye into the fire with this roster around him.

After deciding to give Maye replays from their loss to the Jets in Week 3, Mayo and the Patriots still kept Brissett at the top of the depth chart. A two-turnover performance from Brissett against the 49ers the following weekend apparently wasn't enough to justify Maye passing him on in Week 5.

But now – against it The Texans team – do the Patriots think Maye is ready to take over?

There was no way this was part of a “plan” – not at this point in the season.