Hurricane Milton hits Florida this evening

Hurricane Milton will make landfall in Florida tonight into early Thursday, posing a major threat to life and property as it pummels the state with destructive storm surge, devastating wind damage, potentially catastrophic flooding and multiple tornadoes.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most devastating hurricanes ever for West Central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its Wednesday morning discussion.

This is a life-threatening situation and all evacuations and storm preparations should be completed quickly.

(CARD TRACKER: Spaghetti models and more)

Here is the current status: Milton is a Category 5 hurricane with winds of up to 160 mph as of 5 a.m. EDT. It is Its center is 300 miles southwest of Tampa and it is moving northeast at a speed of 14 miles per hour.

The hurricane's rainfall spreads across parts of the state long before landfall, as the radar snapshot below shows.

Milton has increased in size over the past 24 hours and tropical storm-force winds are now up to 125 miles from its center. It will become even larger as it approaches Florida, meaning its impacts will affect a large area.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings apply here: Hurricane warnings cover much of Central Florida from the Gulf to the Atlantic sides, including the Tampa Bay area, Fort Myers, Orlando, Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach. This means hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) are expected in the warning area from Wednesday evening through early Thursday.

Various tropical storm watches and warnings cover other parts of Florida, southeast Georgia, southeast South Carolina, and southern North Carolina, as shown in the map below.

A storm surge warning extends along Florida's Gulf Coast from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A storm surge warning is also in effect for portions of Florida's Atlantic coast, from Sebastian Inlet north to Altamaha Sound in Georgia, including the St. Johns River in northeast Florida.

This means a life-threatening rise in water levels due to storm surges is expected in these areas from Wednesday to Thursday.

Here is the current forecast for timing and intensity: Milton will gradually weaken as it approaches Florida due to increasing wind shear, but is expected to remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger), making landfall sometime overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.

It is important to note that this weakening will not reduce the impacts we are seeing from Milton, including storm surges, damaging winds and flooding rainfall. As noted, Milton will also grow larger as it approaches Florida, allowing the effects of wind, storm surge and rainfall to spread over a larger area both inside and outside its forecast cone.

In short, do not be careless if you see Milton weakening upon landfall, as this is expected and the hurricane will continue to pose an extremely serious threat to Florida.

I​impacts forecast

Storm surge

The latest NHC forecast calls for storm surge to be up to 8 to 15 feet above the ground when peak tide coincides with high tide along Florida's west-central Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

Please note that adjustments to the storm surge forecast shown below are possible based on Milton's exact path.

Storm surge will be most destructive near and south of where the center of the storm crosses the coast. If you are in a storm surge-prone area, you should follow the instructions of local authorities and evacuate when ordered.

If the storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay comes to pass, it would be the highest there in more than a century. A track near or north of the bay would bring the highest flooding potential there, while a track a little further south would push the worst flooding south.

Much of Florida's west coast will be low tide on Wednesday afternoon and high tide on Thursday morning.

Some storm surge could also flood parts of Florida's east coast and coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina as winds blow onshore as Milton passes Wednesday night into Thursday.

Wind damage

The most devastating winds, which can cause structural damage, topple trees and knock out power, will occur near where central Milton crosses the coast into west-central Florida and then moves inland through central Florida toward the Orlando and Cape Canaveral areas. These areas may experience power outages that last for days.

The timing for the strongest winds will begin late Wednesday along the western Gulf Coast and then spread eastward over Central Florida by the first half of Thursday.

Areas further from landfall in northern and southern Florida will also experience some strong wind gusts, which could at least knock down trees and cause isolated power outages.

Rain flooding

Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding are expected in Milton in the central and northern Florida Peninsula.

Totals in these areas could be 6 to 12 inches, locally up to 18 inches through Thursday.

N​OAA's Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare “high risk” flood warning for parts of Central Florida, including the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas, for Wednesday and Thursday due to this excessive rainfall.

(For even more detailed tracking of weather data in your area, see your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Tornadoes

There is a risk of multiple tornadoes across the central and southern Florida Peninsula Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Some tornadoes could be strong, equivalent to EF2 or greater.

An isolated tornado threat could continue into east central and southern Florida through Thursday.

Review of Milton so far

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on the morning of October 5 and was classified as Tropical Storm Milton shortly thereafter.

The storm then rapidly strengthened into Hurricane Milton about 24 hours later at 1:00 p.m. CDT on October 6.

The next day, Milton experienced another incredible round of rapid intensification. Winds increased from 90 mph at 1 a.m. CDT on October 7 to 180 mph just 15 hours later at 4 p.m. CDT.

Milton's winds of 180 miles per hour made it one of only nine other Atlantic hurricanes to reach that wind threshold or higher.

Its pressure fell to 897 millibars, the lowest recorded in an Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005. This is also the fifth lowest pressure ever recorded for an Atlantic hurricane.