Hurricane Milton made a terrible prediction come true

Updated October 9, 2024 at 9:27 p.m

After churning across the Gulf of Mexico for several days at speeds of up to 180 miles per hour, Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast this evening, the horrific embodiment of a historically destructive season. Milton inflated at a near-record pace, growing from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 behemoth in half a day and becoming one of the most intense hurricanes in history. The hurricane had already brought numerous threats, including a series of deadly tornadoes, before making landfall south of Tampa as a Category 3 storm. It has already knocked out power for more than a million customers in Florida, triggered flash floods and triggered 100-mile-per-hour wind gusts. And the worst is yet to come for millions of people.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be outrageous, but what actually happened is something more nuanced — and strange. July began with Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 storm that struck much earlier than any other in history. Then what was supposed to be the busiest part of the season was eerily quiet. It was “pretty surprising,” Emily Bercos-Hickey, a scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, told me. Then, starting late last month, there was a huge burst of activity: Hurricane Helene, which broke storm surge records in Florida and brought devastating rains far inland; a spate of named storms that arrived in rapid succession; and now Milton.

Hurricane experts are still trying to understand why the current season is in such disarray. The extreme storm in July, the sudden lull during the traditional hurricane peak in late August and early September, and the explosion of hurricanes in October combine to suggest that “the climatological rules of the past no longer apply,” said Ryan Truchelut, a meteorologist in Florida, who runs the consulting firm WeatherTiger, told me. For Truchelut, who has been in the business for 20 years, “there's a dreamlike unreality about living through that time,” as if he no longer lives on the same planet he grew up on. During this summer lull, this hurricane season seemed like a welcome bust. Instead, it's an indication that our collective vision of how hurricane season should play out is quickly becoming unreliable.

Read: An alarming new trend in hurricane deaths

The dire forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season were based on variables known to experts. This summer, Earth has entered La Niña, weakening winds that can prevent hurricanes from becoming too strong or even forming. Meteorologists warned that record-high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, combined with moisture stored in our warming atmosphere, would trigger powerful storms: four to seven major hurricanes compared to the usual three. The 2024 season has already brought four major hurricanes. And it won't end until November.

The lull in the mid-season, however, was unexpected. Meteorologists also appear to have overestimated the total number of storms mentioned – 17 to 25 were predicted and only 13 have occurred so far – even though there is still time. “All the ingredients can be there for an active or inactive season, but it's the week-to-week fluctuations that we can't predict but that often determine what happens,” says Jeff Masters, a Michigan hurricane expert previously worked for hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration told me. Many Atlantic hurricanes are fueled by atmospheric conditions along the coast of West Africa. But this summer, thanks to an unprecedentedly violent monsoon season, the region instead suppressed hurricane formation. Scientists understand the basic mechanisms of the dormant period. Which experts? tilt At the moment the question is whether this scenario can be attributed to a natural coincidence. “We don’t know for sure if this will continue to happen in a warmer climate,” Bercos-Hickey said.

The summer break isn't the only thing that's surprised meteorologists this hurricane season: More hurricanes than usual are making landfall in the mainland United States. With Milton entering the season, he is just one point away from equaling the existing record of six players. Hurricane experts attribute this to simple bad luck, just another variable of hurricane activity that we can do nothing about. But humans bear some responsibility for the fact that hurricanes are, on average, worse. Preliminary studies suggest that climate change has made Helene 10 percent rainier and 11 percent windier. “Eleven percent may not seem like much, but the destructiveness of a hurricane increases by 50 percent for every five percent increase in wind,” Masters said. Scientists believe global warming is also causing hurricanes to intensify more quickly. Milton, Helene and Beryl all experienced rapid intensification this year.

Read: Milton is the hurricane scientists feared

This hurricane season may be a little behind predictions, but “if we look at actual impacts rather than broad metrics, it's been a catastrophic year,” Brian McNoldy, a senior scientist at the University of Miami, told me. In Florida, the residents had just begun to free themselves from Helene's wrath when Milton showed up. Two weeks is not nearly enough time between two major storms, each of which is poised to release more water from the air or oceans than likely would have been the case several decades ago. Meteorologists cannot perfectly predict the course of a given hurricane season – too much is left to chance. Now millions of people in Florida are figuring out what the opportunities mean for them.