Top MLB Home Run Picks Today (Tommy Pham Undervalued, Bet on Juan Soto)

After four MLB playoff games on Wednesday, we're back to just two games on Thursday – both in the ALDS.

The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers took a 2-1 lead in their respective games on Wednesday night and will now look to close things out on Thursday night.

New York will do so with Gerrit Cole on the mound as the favorite, while oddsmakers expect the Cleveland Guardians to force a winner-take-all game in Game 5 against Detroit on Saturday.

Every day in the MLB playoffs, the SI betting team provides a few players to bet on to hit a home run, but we only saw 13 runs total in the Cleveland-Detroit series. In fact, the Guardians haven't scored in consecutive games, making it difficult to bet on a player going deep.

So for today's home run picks, I'm focusing on the matchup between the Yankees and Kansas City Royals.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tommy Pham hits a home run (+900)

Could you find better value than Tommy Pham on Thursday night?

The Kansas City Royals veteran is a Gerrit Cole killer, going 11-for-29 against him in his career and hitting two home runs.

Cole struggled in Game 1, allowing seven hits and two walks in five innings, with several Royals giving him good hits.

I expect Pham – who wasn't in the starting lineup on Wednesday – to be back in the lineup tonight to face Cole.

Juan Soto hits a home run (+480)

Yankees slugger Juan Soto had three hits in Game 1 of this series when Wacha was on the mound, and he is batting .400 (2-for-5) in his career against the Kansas City right-hander.

The Royals were cautious with Soto and handled him several times in this series, especially since Aaron Judge (who struggled against Wacha) looked terrible at the plate.

Still, I estimate Soto to go deep on Thursday night at nearly 5/1 odds.

He hit 41 home runs in the regular season, and he and Giancarlo Stanton have been the two most consistent hitters in this Yankees lineup so far in the postseason.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.