Vance enters the debate spotlight unpopular and unproven, but has a knack for seizing the moment

CNN
—

In the final months of a crowded Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, JD Vance found himself in the middle of the pack.

He appeared badly damaged by a barrage of ads portraying the venture capitalist and former Donald Trump critic as an anti-MAGA liberal from San Francisco. The pollster for a supporting super PAC warned that Vance's campaign was in a “steep decline,” arguing that he had failed to convince Republican voters of his conservative beliefs and loyalty to the former president.

“Vance needs a course correction as soon as possible,” the pollster wrote in a February 2022 memo.

It arrived a month later. When the five most important primary candidates met on stage for the umpteenth time, the two supposed leading candidates almost came to blows. As they stood nose to nose, one prepared to fight while the other uttered a sexist slur. Vance, sitting at the edge of the stage, pounced.

“Think about what you just saw. This guy wants to be a U.S. senator and says, “Hold me back.” “Hold me back,” Vance said to loud applause. “What a joke. Answer the question. Stop messing around.”

It was a breakthrough for Vance, prompting a second look from GOP voters in his state and from Trump, who had been watching the race closely but had not given in to voices in his party urging him to get involved. Snippets of the exchange and other moments from the debate impressed Trump, sources told CNN, and played a role in Vance securing a race-defining endorsement from the former president.

“It was a big moment for the campaign,” said one person involved in Vance’s successful 2022 Senate run, suggesting the episode showcased his talent for seizing crucial opportunities on a debate stage.

On Tuesday, that ability will be put to the test again. Vance, now the Republican nominee for vice president, will meet for the first time with his Democratic counterpart, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, on a debate stage in New York.

At just 40 years old and two years into his political career, Vance is still a largely unproven commodity. It is also unknown whether he will be able to assert himself for the Democrats and at the same time increase his popularity among voters – or at least not jeopardize it further. And then there's Vance's other audience: Trump, who often has his own standards for a successful on-air appearance.

In a direct duel between Vance and Walz, there is an unusually high amount at stake Undercard showdown and an example of the extremely close fight for the White House. Tuesday's affair is not only the only vice presidential debate of the campaign, but it is also likely the last time voters will see the two tickets side by side on national television. Trump has suggested that it is too late for another debate with Kamala Harris, including one suggested by CNN that the vice president agreed to, and that no further debates are scheduled between Vance and Walz either.

(Here, Vance broke away from Trump and called for more debates with Walz, arguing that “you have to earn this job.”)

Vance has spent the last month in intensive preparation sessions, including a mock debate this week with House Majority Leader Tom Emmer in the role of Walz. On Tuesday, the Ohio Republican downplayed those efforts, claiming that the campaign's policies spoke for themselves.

“We will focus on ensuring that I educate the American people as succinctly and directly as possible about the successful policies of Donald Trump and the failed policies of Kamala Harris,” Vance said.

Vance was partly chosen by Trump for that day. In the weeks leading up to Trump's election as vice president, the former president regularly commented to those around him about how well Vance had done on television. It's a skill that's deeply important to Trump, a skill that Vance first learned in the Marines while he was there assigned to the Office of Public Affairs. There he learned to “speak clearly and confidently while television cameras were shoved in my face,” he wrote in his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Between touring to promote his book and launching a political career, Vance honed these skills. Some of Trump's allies tried to influence his choice for vice president by showing him clips of Vance's television interviews, sources told CNN. After Trump picked the Ohio senator, aides told CNN they were particularly looking forward to a Harris-Vance debate, emphasizing that his previous record matched well with the vice president's.

Of course that didn't happen. When President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris stepped in instead, Vance lost his opponent, a change in circumstances that, he joked, left him “pissed off.”

“I was told I was going to play Kamala Harris and now President Trump gets to debate her?” he quipped in July.

Vance is wading into the debate against Walz in the final weeks of a close race after an uneven introduction to Americans marred by resurfaced clips in which he denigrates childless adults and espouses strident abortion opponents. When Vance was chosen as Trump's vice presidential running mate in July, his approval rating was minus six points, according to a CNN poll, with nearly four in 10 registered voters saying they were unsure about the Ohio Republican. Since then, views on Vance have become clearer. A CNN poll last week showed his net favorability deteriorating, now down 12 points, while about a quarter of registered voters said they weren't sure what they thought of him.

Trump and his advisers insist they are not bothered by America's view of Vance, claiming it is partly a function of the role assigned to him. The campaign has pushed Vance into less friendly territory, tasking him with defending Trump in interviews that are often combative while simultaneously pushing increasingly hostile views against the Harris-Walz ticket.

“He’s a fighting dog,” said a senior adviser. “That’s one of the reasons he was signed and that’s what he does well.”

Since Trump chose Vance, he has repeatedly asked his allies how they think he is doing, a familiar source told CNN. But the senior adviser dismissed the idea that the question had anything to do with Trump's opinion of his vice president.

“He does that to everyone. It's just the way he talks,” the adviser said, joking that Trump also asked about the adviser's performance.

Vance's regular exchanges with reporters have earned him praise from conservative pundits and online personalities, but it's unclear whether that approach will pay off with the broader audience that will watch Tuesday's debate.

But advisers say these encounters sharpened his retorts as well as his mastery of technique problems. While Harris and Walz approached the press with extreme caution, Vance made a point of appearing approachable.

Since being selected as Trump's vice presidential running mate, Vance has participated in dozens of interviews on network television, from “Meet the Press” to Fox News to CNN CBS' “Face the Nation” and extended sessions with Sirius XM's “Megyn Kelly Show” and far-right personality Tucker Carlson. At his campaign events – of which there have been about 30 so far – Vance regularly answers questions from the press and chats openly between events with reporters traveling on his campaign plane.

“I have to believe that if you want to be president of the American people, you shouldn't be afraid of a friendly American media,” Vance said at a recent event in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Vance often takes questions with a friendly crowd behind him, who, depending on the network or the question being asked, boo reporters and cheer on the senator's answers – a home advantage he won't have on Tuesday in the New York CBS studio. The debate will not have a live audience.

Vance's daily practice of speaking to reporters on the go has given him the opportunity to learn about Walz, whom his advisers view as a talented speaker in his own right who should not be underestimated. The Senator's The team has met in person at Vance's home in Cincinnati and on Zoom in recent weeks, with a focus on helping him better understand Walz's style and familiarizing Vance with Walz's record as a congressman and governor of Minnesota make, CNN previously reported.

On the campaign trail, however, Vance has moved far from attacking Walz – whom he regularly attacked after the Minnesota governor was named the Democratic vice presidential nominee – and has instead focused his attacks more on Harris in recent events. He indicated he planned to take a similar approach on Tuesday.

“I will use my debate opportunity to try to pursue the case against Kamala Harris,” Vance told CNBC earlier this month, “because she will ultimately be president if the American people elect her.”

CNN's Alayna Treene contributed to this report.