Charlie Kirk's warning to Trump about the North Carolina polls

Conservative political activist Charlie Kirk said on his podcast Monday that former President Donald Trump is “not sure” about his poll numbers in North Carolina.

FiveThirtyEight polls show Republican presidential nominee Trump with 47.7 percent of the vote on Monday, a 0.1 percent lead over Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, who has 47.5 percent of the vote.

“We need everyone in North Carolina to wake up and wake up,” Kirk said on his phone Ask Me Anything Episode 199. “It is not a safe area at the moment. I’m not saying it’s a dangerous area, but it’s not safe.”

“This is a very important place, a very important state,” Trump said last week during a speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina.

AtlasIntel data showed Harris leading 50.5 percent to 48.1 in a North Carolina poll conducted between September 20 and 25.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

Last week, Harris was at the top of the national polling averages, according to numbers he tracked The New York TimesFiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling. Data from all three pollsters shows Trump leading in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

New data from Decision Desk HQ suggests these GOP efforts could be paying off. The Democrats' lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, where that lead has fallen by over 35 percent, nearly 15 percent and over 5 percent, respectively.

“Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him,” said Nate Cohn. The NYT's chief political analyst, wrote. “A shift or failure in the polls in his favor would not be uncommon, although of course that is not guaranteed.”

The path to victory in the Electoral College system lies through swing states, which are states where the electorate is more diverse in terms of the political party they have voted for in the past. In this election cycle, the winner must represent some or all of the following seven states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

According to pollster Nate Silver's modeling conducted Sunday, Harris won all seven swing states 5,273 times in the 70,000 simulations. The second most likely scenario in the simulations was that Trump wins all seven swing states.

If Trump wins just Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia in November, the former president will have enough votes to be declared the overall winner, barring any surprises elsewhere.

Trump could also win by beating Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, and defeating just one of Wisconsin or Michigan, two states where Trump narrows Harris' lead.

Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer told CNN that there is “an incredible chance for Kamala Harris to win North Carolina” because the state's voters will “carefully consider each candidate and zigzag their way through the vote.”

Still, North Carolina's 16 electoral votes have gone to a Democrat only once since 1980.

“I’m going to come to North Carolina a couple times this fall because it’s not where it should be,” Kirk said. “North Carolina was not one of the states we focused on over the summer. We always focused on other places.”