Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy debate the Senate on the phone in Montana

Richmond supported Trump in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans believe Trump's dominance in the state will also boost Sheehy.

Montana has seen an increase in the number of new residents in recent years. While voters in Montana do not register by party, a National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee analysis of voters new to the state between the 2018 elections and early 2023 found that around 40% were previously registered Republicans in other states, while 25% were registered Democrats.

That's partly why some Republicans believe the attacks portraying Sheehy as a wealthy out-of-state won't hold water.

An AARP poll conducted in late August showed Sheehy leading Tester by 6 points, 55% to 49%. The spread was within the poll's 3.5-point margin of error, but is also consistent with other publicly released polls showing Sheehy with an advantage. Sheehy received an overall positive popularity rating, with 48% viewing him positively and 45% viewing him negatively. Tester, on the other hand, had a negative rating overall: 43% rated him positively and 52% rated him negatively.

In an interview with Fox News on the eve of the debate, Sheehy expressed confidence while reflecting on recent polls. Sheehy said that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., “controls Jon Tester” and that “the people of Montana are waking up to that reality.”

“We will win this thing,” said the optimistic political newcomer.

But Tester and his allies believe he can still outpace Trump supporters — the same AARP poll showed Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points, 56% to 41%. The question is whether Tester can depend on it enough to win.

Democratic optimism

Tester's allies believe so. Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters, D-Mich., compared Tester to Sen. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who won re-election in 2020 even though Trump lost her state by 9 points, and noted that both Maine and Montana have smaller populations.

“He could win tough, tough races,” Peters said of Tester at an event at the National Press Club last week. “So what awaits him now is no different. And he's a great retail politician. Retail is really important, especially in a small state. Montana is a really big state geographically, but it’s a small state from a population perspective.”

Peters said Democrats are committed to providing resources for Montana “until the end.” According to advertising tracking firm AdImpact, Tester and his Democratic allies have spent $105 million on advertising in Montana so far. While Republicans saved $82 million on ads in the state. Tester has far exceeded Sheehy's spending, spending $43.2 million to date, while Sheehy has spent $11 million.

Tester will have to win over some Trump-supporting independents and Republicans, a tall order in a state Trump is expected to win easily. Tester appeared to be trying not to anger Trump supporters Monday night, directly referring to “party bosses” rather than Trump as he rebuked Sheehy and his fellow Republicans for opposing a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year.

Tester has a history of defying the state's partisanship, winning more than 30,000 more votes than former President Barack Obama in 2012, beating him by seven points and winning a second term. But Republicans point to more recent results and higher voter turnout as signs of trouble for testers.

In 2020, former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock won nearly 30,000 more votes than Biden when he ran for Senate, but still lost to Republican Sen. Steve Daines by 10 percentage points.

Still, some Democrats believe Tester could defy the odds, bolstered by a strong ground game that also leverages his support among Native American voters.

Near the end of Monday night's debate, Tester criticized Sheehy for his 2023 statements, when Sheehy used stereotypes about alcoholism while discussing the Crow Tribe in Montana, according to audio recordings first reported by Char-Koosta News .

“If you really feel that way about Native Americans, you should apologize for the statements you made about them,” Tester said. Sheehy responded by citing his military background.

“The reality is, yes, she was insensitive. I come from the military, like many of our tribal members. We make insensitive jokes and are probably inappropriate at times,” Sheehy said.

It wasn't the first time Sheehy's use of Native American stereotypes came back to haunt him Monday. During a rally he held just hours before the debate with Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk, two Native American protesters interrupted the campaign event.

“You are a racist! You're a racist!” One of the protesters chanted Sheehy as he was forcibly removed from the University of Montana theater where the event was taking place on Monday afternoon.

Democrats also believe an abortion initiative could also boost Tester among voters who want to codify abortion rights in Montana. WinSenate, a Democratic outside group, recently began running abortion-related ads in the state.

Sheehy said Monday that he would respect Montana voters' decision, but also appeared open to supporting federal measures on abortion, saying he supports “health and life legislation” that includes exceptions for rape, incest and provide for the protection of the mother's life.

Testers called the issue “fundamental to us as Montanans” and did not want the federal government involved in medical decisions.

“The bottom line is: If we want situations like what just happened in Georgia, when a woman died because doctors were afraid to treat her, because she was afraid to get help, to not happen, then this is “Here’s your man,” Tester said. “If you’re looking for someone to help empower women to make their own health decisions, I’m the person for you.”

Sarah Thaggard, a 34-year-old administrator and baker from Helena, told NBC News that she supports Tester out of concern that Sheehy might support a statewide abortion ban.

“I just know that if Sheehy gets into office, it’s going to look really bad for women,” Thaggard said.

Chuck Denowh, a Montana Republican strategist and former executive director of the state party, said in a telephone interview that the abortion-choice initiative is expected to boost Tester, but the Democrat still faces a difficult road as voter turnout is expected to be high in November.

“I don't think that's the deciding factor for testers. I think it helps him a little bit to win over a few more of his voters,” Denowh said. “But the polls I’ve seen show Sheehy is in a very good position right now.”

Bridget Bowman reported from Washington, DC; Alex Tabet reported from Missoula, Montana.