Rashee Rice's injury leaves the Chiefs in a state of fantasy uncertainty

Hello students. Welcome to our new course, Analysis of Chiefs Fantasy Variable Postulates 101. We start today's lesson with a little history.

The Chiefs became an NFL juggernaut in 2018. They had a solid running game behind rookie Kareem Hunt, but their real strength was in the passing game – with receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce fueled by Unicorn quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

In subsequent years there was a revolving door of running backs, but the holy fantasy trinity of Hill, Kelce and Mahomes was always there to serve opponents well and reward fantasy teams handsomely.

Until…Hill was traded after the 2021 season. The expectation was that his loss would result in an offensive decline in 2022. But does anyone know what happened instead? Anyone? …Anyone?

That's right. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Kelce remained dominant and Mahomes was still the QB king, except instead of peppering a star WR with targets, he distributed small portions of that amount to multiple overbearing receivers.

Fast forward to today: The Chiefs appear to have lost this season's top receiver, Rashee Rice, due to a knee injury they suffered on Sunday. Everything will be fine, right? If they could lose Tyreek and still be good, losing Rice should be a solvable problem, right?

Does anyone see any reason why the same logic shouldn't apply? Anyone? …Anyone? … True, there are some differences.

The last time this happened, the Chiefs were able to rely on a running game with then-rookie Isiah Pacheco, who first became fantasy relevant in the second half of the 2022 season. But the now experienced RB will likely be out until at least November after fibula surgery.

The options behind him are uninspiring and the workload between Hunt, Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele is unclear. We expect the backcourt to be confusing and unreliable until Pacheco returns.

Kelce was the alpha of the tight end species in 2022. Now he's just one of them, and he's not even at the top of that group.

He's already in uncharted territory and has performed as well as he has until well into his 30s – he's 34. An increase in targets is to be expected and should give his production a slight boost, but don't pin your hopes on a setback for salad days. He will be better than he has been so far this season, but will still be well behind leader Kelce.

Does anyone remember what happened to the receivers after Hill was dealt? That's right, the Chiefs spread the ball around to several overbearing receivers. And what is the best predictor of future behavior, class? Anyone? …Anyone? … That's right, it's behavior from the past. So expect the Chiefs to spread their targets across multiple senior receivers again this time around.

Is Xavier Worthy an anomaly, you ask? Maybe in terms of skill, but as far as our production hypothesis goes, we expect him to continue to be boom or bust and rely on big plays rather than volume. And coach Andy Reid reiterated that sentiment Monday, saying they plan to distribute the ball.

An additional loan is possible: If the Chiefs trade for a receiver. But we'll cover that in a later course.

To summarize the expected duality: A less running game will make it easier for defenses to cover lower receiving options, and weaker receivers will make it easier to defend against the run. So we have a self-perpetuating cycle that spreads throughout the entire offense – so an uncomfortable level of uncertainty.

So if the question on the exam is who are possible solutions to the Chiefs WR problem, if someone answers Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Skyy Moore, you will fail this course.

We definitely don't want that. Do any of you have? Anyone? …Anyone?

Everything is OK

Rico Dowdle RB, Cowboys

He had twice as many touches as Ezekiel Elliott in Week 4, but still needed a TD to satisfy fantasy interest. But if he hits that volume consistently, he becomes a weekly flex option.

Chase Brown RB, Bengals

For the first time this season, I had 50 percent of the hectic workload on Sunday. Zack Moss isn't going away, but at least Brown is moving up to flex status.

Dontayvion Wicks WR, Packers

He is the Packers' biggest threat. And he dominated Week 4 targets with 13. With a cap that includes that kind of volume, he gets weekly starting consideration.

Tre Tucker WR, Raiders

He has seen a huge boost in the last two weeks, especially with the loss of Davante Adams. With the Raiders often behind, Tucker should continue to gain volume while Adams is sidelined.

What's wrong, buddy?

Breece Hall RB, Jets

For now, I consider the Week 4 dud an anomaly. But the increasing use of Braelon Allen and Hall's pedestrian production is raising alarms. No panic yet, just awareness.

Zamir White RB, Raiders

Despite having double-digit carries in three of four games, White has yet to reach double-digits in PPR this season. And Alexander Mattison surpasses him in goal-line work. White is unplayable.

Jordan Addison WR, Vikings

We've changed our mindset about expectations for the Vikings' offense. However, we believe Addison's spectacular return on Sunday could increase his trade value. Take a look around to see if he can get you a weekly starter player.

Betting on the NFL?

Mark Andrews TE, Ravens

He has consecutive fantasy donuts. Worse, he only scored a total of two goals in the two games. Even at a position as shallow as tight end, you can do better than zero every week. Time for Andrews to hit the ejector lever.