2024 Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide – Sleepers and Busts

Sleeper. busts.

Identify one and avoid the other as if your fantasy season depends on it. Because it could. Successfully scouting for underrated talent while avoiding players who end up underperforming creates a formula that is guaranteed to pay dividends throughout the campaign.

The trick, of course, is to figure out before the season who falls into one of the opposing categories based on skill, opportunity, health, past trends and where each player is currently heading in their NHL career.

Of course things are relative. Is Sam Reinhart a bust if he “only” scores 40 instead of 57 goals this season? Not if you design it according to expectations receive 40 and another 30 assists or something.

The same applies to “sleepers”. If such under-the-radar players are taken too far too early in drafts, the advantage of capturing such a hidden gem is negated. Timing is key.

With that in mind, here are some potential sleepers to consider as late-round draft acquisitions or even as free agents after the season begins. Plus a small handful of those who may cause disappointment to their managers over where they might be selected in their respective drafts.

Resources: Projections | mock draft | Goalie Depth Chart | Most added/deleted

sleeper

Viktor Arvidsson, F, Edmonton Oilers (Forward No. 116)

I wonder how many players wouldn't agree to leave the milder climate of Southern California for a cooler winter in Alberta in exchange for the chance to play on the same line with elite center Leon Draisaitl. Probably not that big of a number. Arvidsson has certainly proven he's interested after signing a two-year, $8 million deal for this very opportunity. The 31-year-old is one of the sport's most underrated strikers and could reach new productive heights in this new gig. A 70-point campaign seems within reach. Just two years ago, he scored 59 points in 77 games for the Kings. I'm also pretty excited to see what veteran Jeff Skinner can accomplish if he stays on the same page as Connor McDavid. Keep an eye on this relationship too.

Jake DeBrusk, F, Vancouver Canucks (Forward #146)

If he can maintain a goal line with top center Elias Pettersson, the former Bruin could score 40 goals on more than 200 shots this year. That would be pretty impressive for a skater ranked 146th at his position heading into the 2024-25 season. DeBrusk is one of my favorite late-round grabs or even post-draft wire picks this fall. Assuming he leaves camp in a top-six position alongside Pettersson or JT Miller, as expected.

Tommy Novak, Nashville Predators (Forward No. 180)

If he ends up centering the goal line between Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, as many expect, Novak should cross the 65-point mark with ease. That's hardly an outrageous prediction considering the 27-year-old averaged 0.63 points per game last season in competition with Predators likes Luke Evangelista, Kiefer Sherwood and Mark Jankowski. Good Player – Evangelista is promising – but not Stamkos and/or Marchessault.

Morgan Frost, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 188)

The warm-up is over. In the final year of his current contract, the 25-year-old must establish himself as a true top-six center in the NHL. A full season between Travis Konecny ​​and Owen Tippett – or perhaps even young talent Matvei Michkov – at even strength and on the No. 1 power play should help in that regard. Frost has certainly shown flashes. And John Tortorella won't tolerate much less. There are only a limited number of private meetings between head coaches and players. Experience how the still young center takes a big leap starting this fall.

Anthony Duclair, F, New York Islanders (Forward No. 216)

Don't be too surprised if Duclair becomes the Islanders' leading scorer at the end of the season. After signing a four-year deal, he is expected to skate at New York's helm, and possibly their No. 1 power play unit. Having spent his youth years with the QMJHL Quebec Remparts, he knows what coach Patrick Roy is about (and vice versa). When he's in the swing of things, the well-traveled 29-year-old is a dynamic goalscorer. Just be patient if Duclair's production dries up for a while. The high ceiling winger tends to react in more extreme hot/cold ways than most.

Kirby Dach, F, Montreal Canadiens (Forward #258)

Firstly, he has to stay healthy. A cause for concern after the third overall draft pick (2019) missed all but two games last season due to a knee injury. Then his new expected linemate, Patrik Laine, also has to stay fit and invest in the best possible performance. But if everything goes as coach Martin St. Louis dreams, both the 23-year-old center and former 44-goal scorer could have a blast in Montreal this season. Which would indeed make Dach a sneaky gem in the deepest fantasy league.

Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers (defender No. 74)

While it seems a little strange to label a former prolific fantasy player as a sleeper after last year's four-goal, 14-assist loss due to injury, here we are. Fortunately, his strong performance in the Panthers' successful cup run suggests that his troublesome shoulder and other physical problems will no longer bother him towards the end of the season. Oh, and with Brandon Montour heading to Seattle, the veteran is expected to lead Florida's top power play once again. A significant fantasy deal indeed. The true No. 1 draft pick (2014) would serve well as the No. 3/4 defenseman on teams in decent-sized fantasy leagues. He deserves a significantly higher ranking than 74th place.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings (Goalie #29)

Kuemper is a good goalkeeper who is coming off a bad year. Now back in LA, where he briefly landed in 2017/18, the ex-Capital player is ready to right his own netminding ship. It will be helpful to play for a team that is stronger defensively. A lot. The 34-year-old is also expected to see plenty of action, with David Rittich serving as the Kings' No. 2 option.

See also:

• JJ Peterka, F, Buffalo Sabres

• Quinton Byfield, F, Los Angeles Kings

• Gabriel Vilardi, F, Winnipeg Jets

• William Eklund, F, San Jose Sharks

• Leo Carlsson, F, Anaheim Ducks

• Connor Zary, F, Calgary Flames

• Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs

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busts

Frank Vatrano, F, Anaheim Ducks (Forward No. 27)

Before last season's breakthrough with 37 goals (13.6 percent) and 23 assists, the 30-year-old had not collected more than 41 points in a full season. Not with the Bruins, Panthers or even the Ducks last season. (His look at the 2021-22 season with the Rangers is too brief to fully appreciate.) With budding cutter Gauthier on board and second-year player Leo Carlsson expected to take a significant step forward , Vatrano expects to play on Anaheim's second power play. It will be difficult for him to repeat the unprecedentedly productive performance of a year ago, especially with the addition of a skater.

MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames (defender No. 10)

I'm a huge MacKenzie Weegar fan. But expecting another 52-point season, 15 of which come with the additional skater, is asking too much. A top-10 fantasy defenseman? Even in leagues that reward physical play, it feels like a significant challenge.

Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators (Goalie #6)

The ex-Bruin's move to Ottawa concerns me quite a bit. While the Senators are on the right track, they are not yet at the same level as Boston, especially on defense. No doubt, Ullmark will play a lot and steal a few. He will also endure some much tougher games, giving his managers negative numbers in the ESPN standard leagues.

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