5 Things to Watch for in the VP Debate: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the political editorial teaman evening newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today's edition, the NBC News staff breaks down what they're watching for in the vice presidential debate. Additionally, the national political correspondent examines how JD Vance and Tim Walz's poll numbers compare to other current contenders.

Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter tonight, where we will summarize and analyze the Vance-Walz debate.

The 90-minute showdown, hosted by CBS News, is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET. Follow all the action on our live blog.

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5 things to watch for in tonight's vice president debate

Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will take the stage tonight in New York City for the first and only vice presidential debate five weeks before Election Day.

Five NBC News employees weighed in on one important thing they'll be paying attention to:

Garrett Haake: Will Vance get the lines of attack Trump wants?

Former President Donald Trump sees his vice president as an extension of his own message — as most nominees do — and he made it clear to me in a phone interview today that he expects to see Vance on both sides of his attack against Vice President Kamala Harris Favorite topics: Immigration and inflation.

I'm watching to see whether Vance can do what Trump has been unable to do: send Harris' numbers on these two issues back down after they have steadily improved. Trump's attacks can now seem routine to voters, who have heard him repeat the same things over and over again. Can Vance – far less well-known than Trump – provide a new framework for these groundbreaking issues?

Henry J. Gomez: Are tempers heating up?

The first (and really only) rule of attending a vice presidential debate is to do no harm. That's why candidates prepare lines designed to catch their rivals off guard and force a dangerous mistake – and why they work hard with their superiors to anticipate and defuse what bombs might be thrown their way.

Walz has the longer debate record, but Minnesota is something of a backwater on the national political scene. Vance is the less experienced debater, but his team has been introducing him to tough television news interviewers for months to iron out any mistakes.

Peter Nicholas: Will we see more of Walz's normal male personality?

Remember when Walz became Harris' running mate and seemed to electrify the race with his run-of-the-mill guy, high school football coach, and clean-cut truth-teller personality?

He appeared to be one of the Harris campaign's top operatives. Watch tonight's debate to see whether Walz reminds voters why he seemed so attractive earlier in the summer and whether he leaves them wanting more.

Emma Barnett: The memeification of the debate

I'm watching how quickly memes emerge from this debate – Generation Z seems to be obsessed with Walz, and there have been less kind memes about Vance. Whether Gen Z starts spreading memes could be a quick indication of how — or if — they view the debate.

Raquel Coronell Uribe: Will Vance and Walz shake hands?

President Joe Biden and Trump did not shake hands during their fateful debate in June. As the new Democratic candidate, Harris broke with Biden during the September debate by walking straight across the stage toward Trump, whom she had never met before, and initiating a handshake with him.

Will Vance and Walz, who will also be meeting in person for the first time, follow suit?

How Vance and Walz's poll numbers compare to previous vice presidential candidates

By Steve Kornacki

Ahead of tonight's vice presidential debate, JD Vance has an image problem. In our latest NBC News poll, just 32% of voters have a positive view of him, compared to 45% who view him unfavorably. That's a net positive rating of minus 13 points – one of the worst recorded by a vice presidential candidate in an NBC News poll at similar points in the election cycle since 1988.

In contrast, Tim Walz enjoys a slightly positive net rating, putting him just in the middle of the field among recent vice presidential candidates:

Only two vice presidential candidates in the last ten elections have been less popular than Vance is now.

James Stockdale, who served as independent Ross Perot's vice president in 1992, was a true American hero. But his story was unknown to much of the public, which didn't help his decidedly unpolished debate performance. (Respondents in all of these NBC polls were offered “neutral” as an option, which many chose in Stockdale’s case.)

And then-Vice President Dan Quayle also paid a heavy price in 1992 for four years of near-constant pop culture ridicule that began when George HW Bush chose him as his vice president in 1988. Quayle's image was so tarnished, in fact, that some of Bush's pundits planned to remove him from the list this year.

With tens of millions of people expected to watch tonight's debate, Vance certainly has the opportunity to improve his standing – just as a shaky performance from Walz could erase the advantage he now enjoys over Vance. But if Vance's image problem persists or even worsens, the question will be whether his candidacy could cost Republican votes.

The conventional wisdom is that voters' opinions of the presidential candidates ultimately outweigh any strong feelings – positive or negative – they may have about the vice presidential choice. This is supported by the 1988 example. As you can see, Democratic vice presidential nominee Lloyd Bentsen enjoyed a net positive rating of 30 points, while Quayle was 5 points below – a 35-point deficit. And yet the Bush-Quayle Republican candidacy outperformed the Democratic Michael Dukakis-Bentsen candidacy.

But with swing state polls so close in this election, a small shift could still make the difference. The Republican fear is about a persuasive type of voter who doesn't care about Harris and the Democrats, but who is also horrible about Trump and needs reassurance. Will Vance end up simply reinforcing this voter’s reluctance?

After the Iranian attack on Israel, the Biden White House is desperately trying to avert a major war in the Middle East

By Dan De Luce, Carol E. Lee, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Abigail Williams

The Biden administration's months-long effort to avert a full-scale war between Israel and Iran is now facing its toughest test yet after Tehran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

The government has worked around the clock over the past year to avoid a direct clash between its ally Israel and Iran. But now officials face a potential worst-case scenario, as the Iranian attack will inevitably trigger a retaliatory strike from the Israeli military. Such a chain reaction could potentially involve the United States as it contributes to the defense of Israel and other countries in the region.

The last time Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel – six months ago in a retaliatory attack after Israel bombed a diplomatic compound in Syria – only a handful of the 300 projectiles hit Israel, and Washington managed to convince Israel to hold back from a major attack in retaliation.

This time, regardless of whether the Iranian attack is effective, Israel will be ready to strike back, former U.S. and Israeli officials said.

Read more →

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have any feedback – likes or dislikes – email us at [email protected]

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