ALDS odds, tips, best bets

The ALDS was pretty much all or nothing between the Guardians and the Tigers.

Cleveland was the first to lose blood with a 7-0 shutout in Game 1, but then the Tigers returned the favor with back-to-back 3-0 shutouts to take a 2-1 lead.

According to the Associated Press, the last time a playoff series began with three shutouts in a row was in 1905. Cleveland has now gone 20 straight innings without scoring a run.

Although the situation looks bleak for the Guardians, I'll tell you why they provide value in Game 4 on Thursday with their backs against the wall.

Guardians vs Tigers odds

Outlook of the Guardians

Tanner Bibee will make his second start in the series after getting the nod in Game 1. Despite leading 5-0 at the end of the game, Bibee didn't throw deep enough to qualify for the win.

It's not that he pitched badly. Manager Stephen Vogt simply decided to turn the game over to his bullpen after Detroit's Parker Meadows reached base with a single in the fifth inning.

In 4 ⅔ innings, Bibee threw 76 pitches, handed out four hits and finished the game with six strikeouts.

Perhaps Vogt was already thinking ahead later in the series by keeping his right-hander fresh and not exhausting his pitch count.

The Guardians already have a lot of confidence in the California native after naming him their Game 1 starter. After all, Bibee posted a respectable ERA of 3.47 with a FIP of 3.56. He also led Cleveland pitchers with a Wins Above Replacement rating of 3.3.

He has given up just three runs in his last three games against the Tigers (15 ⅔ innings).

Tigers outlook

Undoubtedly, there are good margins in this series, considering that neither team has ever swung a good bat. So it's hard to get too excited about the Tigers at this point.

Detroit is just one game away from the ALCS, although Tarik Skubal (6.3) is the only starting pitcher with a WAR above 1.2. There was a bit of smoke and mirrors about how the Tigers pulled off these wins.

Manager AJ Hinch, a former catcher, is known for his creativity and ability to manage pitchers. He was able to push the right buttons by combining his bullpen arms.

Game 4 will likely be the third time this series that he uses his “pitching chaos” with an opener and bulk reliever strategy.

Detroit is essentially in free agency and Skubal is ready to pitch Game 5 if necessary. So there's a chance the Tigers could get a little complacent with their ace and Cy Young favorite waiting in the wings.

One would have to assume the Guardians will find a way to give up at least one run and avoid a third straight shutout. If they are successful, the floodgates could be opened to force a Game 5.

Guardians vs. Tigers picks

Had Cleveland managed to score a run despite a loss in Game 3, I would probably be rooting for the Tigers to close out the series in front of their fans on Thursday night.

But with that scoreless skid still looming, the Guardians find themselves in such a unique situation that they now offer more value.

Find out everything you need to know about MLB betting

Historically, MLB favorites are 104-46 (69.3%) on the money line after consecutive shutouts. If we adjust our parameters to only consider short road favorites at -130 or lower, their performance improves to 29-7 (80.6%), and that angle currently stands at a 7-0 run.

At BetMGM we only need to bet Cleveland -120, which is well within our range to justify a game against the visitors.

Best Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-120, BetMGM)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.