Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 307

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) light heavyweight knockout artist Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Roundtree will compete TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

I don't think there's a great overarching narrative to this match. It's actually quite simple: “Poatan” continues to blow everyone away and has become one of the UFC's biggest stars, so the promotion is in no rush to book him against a talented wrestler Magomed Ankalaev. Needing a counterpart to Pereira and a main event to salvage this lackluster pay-per-view (PPV), UFC turned to Rountree. The exciting but flawed batsman was suspended earlier this year for failing a drug test.

Realistically, this is a match designed to end quickly and (most likely) give Pereira another highlight-reel knockout victory. Rountree, meanwhile, gets his chance to play spoiler and pull off one of the biggest title surprises in recent memory.

Let's take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pereira vs Rountree betting odds

• Alex Pereira win: -470
• Alex Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: -330
• Alex Pereira by submission: +1600
• Alex Pereira by decision: +900
• Khalil Rountree win: +360
• Khalil Rountree via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
• Khalil Rountree via submission: +3000
• Khalil Rountree by decision: +1600
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pereira wins

Pereira has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best strikers in mixed martial arts (MMA) history. His power is simply ferocious, the kind of gift that leaves his opponents no room for error. His wrestling and grappling are still perfectly fine, but so far no one has been able to capitalize on them.

Let’s not complicate things here: “Poatan” is a much better kickboxer than Rountree. No amount of passion for Muay Thai will change that in this phase of the game. Rountree hits hard enough that Pereira has to stay focused and alert defensively, but his lineups are more difficult and his connections more devastating.

Despite his offensive prowess, Rountree still isn't great at seeing straight shots coming. If Pereira executes his body jab as usual, I expect a big upward connection sooner rather than later, especially if he can deceive and pull out Rountree's check-hook counter.

How Rountree wins

Rountree has come a long way since his death The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) days. Using Muay Thai has truly proven to be a successful strategy for the striker, who has turned his athleticism into a more serious advantage by thoroughly refining his striking range.

I think it would be stupid of Rountree not to at least pretend to wrestle a little bit. A running double leg – surely a big, athletic guy like Rountree can do that, right? It's not complicated – a shot or even a few slaps at the main guy could help force Pereira out of kickboxing mode a little and keep him honest, even if the wrestling doesn't do much good.

Otherwise, I think Rountree needs to punish Pereira's no-nonsense attitude. Israel Adesanya did this well with straight punches to the chest, an idea that Rountree was able to copy. Teep kicks may also be available. Maybe even that infamous side kick to the knee? Pereira is so dangerous when he is comfortable in the pocket. So if you throw him a little out of his usual stance, you might take some of the edge off his punches.

Finally, Rountree must remain counter-ready. Pereira puts himself in harm's way in pursuit of opportunities and Rountree hits hard enough to capitalize, proving he won't be overwhelmed and keeps a sharp eye.

Photo by Todd Lussier/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Pereira vs Rountree prediction

There is no logical reason to choose anything other than Pereira by knockout.

I enjoy watching Rountree fight, but he's been on the UFC roster for eight years and has never beaten an elite fighter. He is not far removed from inconspicuous achievements. He's certainly a live dog thanks to his own strength and slight youth advantage, but the likelihood of surprise is high for good reason. Why not pick the real world-class kickboxer in a striker versus striker match?

Prediction: Pereira via Knockout (-330)

LIVE! Watch UFC 307 PPV on ESPN+ here!

Championship doubleheader! The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, October 5, 2024 with two exciting championship fights at the top. In the pay-per-view (PPV) main event of UFC 307, the light heavyweight champion became Alex Pereiraaims for his third successful title defense in 2024 as he clashes with the No. 8 contender, Khalil Rountree Jr.in a battle of fierce knockout artists. Meanwhile, the UFC 307 Championship co-headliner women's bantamweight division, Raquel Penningtondefended against the former defending champion and number 1 contender, Julianna Penain a grudge match out of time The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 more than a decade ago. UFC 307 will also feature the return of the former pound-for-pound star, Jose Aldoas well as Kayla Harrison, Kevin Holland and much more! The action of “SLC!” is a must-see! UFC 307 Start time is planned 6:30 p.m. ET (preliminary round card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

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Remember that MMAmania.com delivers LIVE round-by-round and blow-by-blow coverage of the entire area UFC 307 fight card Right Herestarting with the early one ESPN+ Online preliminary round games, which are scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET (Simultaneously broadcast on ESPNews at 8pm ET), before the start time of the pay-per-view (PPV) main card 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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