Brewers owner discusses club's upcoming offseason

The Brewers still have business to take care of here in 2024, having won the National League Central. Of course, they still have the ambition to keep winning until October and secure a World Series title. But the offseason will begin in a few weeks regardless of what happens in the playoffs, and plans need to be made. Owner Mark Attanasio was asked about some of the questions facing the club, and Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported his answers. Most notably, Attanasio didn't provide much insight into the club's projected payroll for next year while downplaying the chances of the club re-signing the shortstop Willy Adames.

As far as payroll goes, Attanasio didn't really give a tip. While the club's strong performance this year has resulted in increased ticket revenue and strong TV ratings, the owner hinted that it could potentially end up going bust as the club would receive less revenue sharing.

“We have a budget every year,” Attanasio said. “Revenue is not just ticket revenue; This includes drinks and sponsorship, all of which are strong. (There is) also revenue sharing, which we've talked about a lot. The way the revenue share model works, everyone puts their money into the pot and then it gets recalibrated. The more money you earn in comparison, the lower the revenue share is.”

Attanasio also stressed that the club will face some uncertainty regarding its TV revenue. “We have local media – some would say challenges, but I would say opportunities – with the challenges at Diamond (Sports Group) and Bally's. If you look at the medium term and not just the short term, I see this as an opportunity because of the possibility of controlling our digital rights, which are very valuable. And that could lead to a regression next year.” According to Hogg, Attanasio clarified that “a regression” meant less TV revenue coming in and not necessarily less money being spent on player payroll.

Diamond has been in limbo for quite some time now. During the 2022-23 offseason, reports emerged that the company that owns Bally Sports Networks was in poor financial condition. The company filed for bankruptcy shortly before the start of the 2023 season, but has been trying to stay afloat ever since. It is not yet clear whether their efforts to continue operations will ultimately be successful.

Although the company has continued to put together broadcasts for some clubs, their overall portfolio has changed. They terminated their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023. They threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers in 2024, but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs. The Brewers have remained relatively untouched so far, but Hogg's article notes that their contract with Diamond expires after the 2024 season, making their TV revenue in 2025 a big unknown at this point.

There are many moving factors between admission revenue, uncertainty about the broadcast situation and revenue sharing. With the club continuing to perform well on the field but facing business issues, it is perhaps safe to assume that the payroll will not shift much in one direction or the other.

According to Cot's baseball contracts, the club's payroll is generally in the middle of the league. Attanasio bought the club in 2005 and the club has never ranked above 13th in player spending since then. Since the pandemic, the Brewers are 19th-22nd among the majors' 30 clubs. That year, they placed 22nd with an opening budget of $104 million.

Despite these financial limitations, there were many successes on the field. This is the sixth time in the last seven years that Milwaukee has made the postseason, missing by just a single game in 2022.

According to RosterResource, the club has committed just $39 million to next year's roster, although that number doesn't really reflect the offseason picture. Rhys Hoskins has an $18 million player option that he will surely trigger after a down year. There's a $4 million buyout, so he'll add $14 million to the budget by sticking around for next year. The club will certainly take advantage of the club options Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams And Colin Reawhich adds another $21.25 million.

That would bring the total to $75 million, not including arbitration increases. Aaron Civale is making $4.9 million this year and is expected to get a few million more. Hoby Milner And Joel Payamps Each made around $2 million this year and will hit bumps. William Contreras will qualify for the first time and should be able to make a significant improvement based on his strong career so far. Players like Jake Bauer, Bryse Wilson, Eric Haase, Trevor Megill And Nick Mears are also suitable for arb raises.

Depending on which of these players are offered contracts and where salaries ultimately land, the Brewers could end up pretty close to this year's $104 million payroll before even making any offseason moves. Some trades could always free up some money, but the club may not have much dry powder to bring Adames back, something Attanasio spoke openly about.

“He will get a huge free agent contract and I am very happy for him and his family and we will do our best,” Attanasio said. “But there are much deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but has seen a strong rebound this year. He hit 32 home runs and drew walks in 10.8% of his plate appearances. His .251/.331/.462 line yielded a wRC+ of 119, suggesting he was 19% above league average overall. He also stole 21 bases in 25 attempts. His defensive ratings were not as good as previous years, with -16 defensive runs saved and 0 outs above average, although his career record is still positive in both metrics. Despite the lower marks for his gloves, he was still worth 4.8 wins above his replacement this year, according to FanGraphs.

A significantly above-average shortstop entering his age-29 season, his free agency boasts plenty of comparisons Dansby Swanson, Javier Baez And Trevor story. All three were in a similar position when they hit the open market. Báez and Story each received $140 million over six years, while Swanson received $177 million over seven years.

The Brewers have only awarded a contract close to this range once, with the extension for Christian Yelich come to 188.5 million US dollars. Aside from that, the largest contract in franchise history was for $105 million Ryan Brown in 2011, as shown in MLBTR's Contract Tracker.

Given the club's track record and current budget question marks, as well as Attanasio's clear comments, the chances of Adames returning to Milwaukee seem quite slim. Assuming that happens, they will recoup the draft pick compensation by making him a qualifying offer, which he declines.

The club has several internal options to replace Adames as both are the case Brice Turang And Joey Ortiz appeared as shortstops in the minors. They have posted strong defensive numbers this year, particularly at second and third base, and both could be candidates to return to short positions in the future. Neither has qualified for arbitration yet, so it would be a cost-effective solution to Adames' departure if the club took that route. They would then have to deal with either second or third base, but could also find internal solutions to this problem. The club played with it Sal Frelick He was moved to third as a solution to the crowded outfield, although injuries allowed him to remain in the outfield for the time being. Outlook Tyler Black is also a possibility for the future in the hot corner.

Many questions will need to be answered in the coming weeks and months. For now, the club will focus on winning the upcoming games, which could also have an impact on the coming winter. A longer playoff run would result in more gate and TV revenue, which could potentially impact how the front office and owners answer some of these questions.