Crucial moment in the Conservative leadership race

The finish sprint to the starting line has begun.

It's not about sprinting to the finish line, but about sprinting to the starting blocks.

The next leader of the Conservative Party will be chosen by members of the Conservative Party, but they can only choose from the final two candidates chosen by Conservative MPs on Wednesday afternoon.

Right now there are: intrigues, conspiracies, phone calls, silent conversations, conjectures and claims of underhanded tactics.

“We’re pushing for quite a season finale,” one Conservative MP told me.

I know what you may be thinking: pull yourself together, this vote is about determining the final two candidates for the position of Leader of the Opposition next month.

It's not exactly the race for the White House.

But it is still a critical moment.

There are three contestants left – James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch – but only two golden tickets left.

Read more about the three still in the running Here.

The standout development in Tuesday's voting round was that James Cleverly not only came out on top, but was miles ahead.

He received 39 votes, a number that even some in his own camp saw as slightly higher than they had expected.

His performance is attributed to getting the best out of him Conference speech last week and efficiently vacuuming up quite a bit MPs who had previously supported former cabinet minister Mel Stride.

In a race with a total of 121 votes available, 41 is enough to secure a place in the bottom two when all Conservative MPs vote, as both rivals cannot outdo you.

(Incidentally, I was told that outgoing leader Rishi Sunak did not vote, meaning there was actually an electorate of 120).

Either way, Cleverly is almost there, assuming he doesn't go backwards.

The working hypothesis of all campaigns is that he will form the final pair.

And so now there is a duel between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick for second place.

Jenrick came second in this final round of voting with 31 votes – but lost two votes from the previous round.

Badenoch came third with 30 votes, just one vote behind. but received two votes.

And following the widely expected departure of former security minister Tom Stimmehat, 20 voices are now looking for a new home.

It may not seem like a big number, but 20 is a lot in an electorate of 121.

“James is irrelevant now. It’s all a battle between us and Kemi’s team now,” said a Team Jenrick insider.

“Tom’s supporters are closer to us than theirs,” they added.

“In the end we will be ahead.”

It's a characteristic display of confidence from Jenrick's camp, who has exuded plenty of it throughout.

But there's no shortage of psychology in all of this – and you may need a shot of external confidence if you've just been pushed from the top and managed to fall behind.

Badenoch supporters admit they wished she had done better in the final round.

But they believe there is a group of virtuehat supporters who really didn't like it Jenrick's claim last week that British special forces “kill terrorists rather than capture them” due to the European Convention on Human Rights.

They particularly disliked him Use in a campaign video from photographs of one of Stimmehhat's comrades from his time in the military, who later died.

“Rob is in trouble,” predicts – or hopes – one MP.

So things are: uncertain, fiercely contested and close.

Tory MPs must decide who they really don't want as leader and consider how party members might vote depending on the various potential pairings.

The website ConservativeHome says that as things stand, James Cleverly could beat Robert Jenrick among the members, but Kemi Badenoch could beat James Cleverly.

“Accordingly, supporting Badenoch appears to be the best thing for MPs if they want to stop Cleverly from winning.

“And if they want to stop Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick beckons,” as ConservativeHome puts it.

It's enough to make your head spin.

No wonder there are rumors that all sorts of shenanigans were going on – and could still be going on.

Team Badenoch are fighting hard over their apparent popularity with party members.

But they are doing this because they know that some MPs really don't want her as leader.

“What will the members say if they have to vote for two people they don’t want?” says one.

“It will be like Liz and Rishi all over again when the members wanted Penny against Kemi,” they add, referring to Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt competing in 2022 and the prospect of a Cleverly-Jenrick run out of.

It makes me think about how the party would react if Badenoch were rejected by MPs.

It couldn't be nice.

So the stakes are high – as the Conservative Party approaches its biggest moment yet since its disastrous election defeat in July.