Harris vs. Trump could be headed to Omaha, Nebraska

Graphic: Intelligencer, Wikimedia Commons

The center of the political universe this month was in Omaha, Nebraska.

It's not that the workers in Rust Belt Pennsylvania or the soccer moms in suburban Georgia have lost any of their relevance in the upcoming election, but Omaha is the only place where both the White House and the White House are House control The House of Representatives could decide on November 5th. That's because Nebraska is one of two states that divide its electoral votes by congressional district (the other is Maine). One of the state's five voting districts is in its second district, which covers Omaha and surrounding suburbs and may represent the archetypal swing area. There are the Catholic Worker Democrats, who have recently pivoted to the right, and the Country Club Republicans, who have pivoted to the left; majority-minority neighborhoods in North Omaha; farms outside the rural county seat of Wahoo; Offutt Air Force Base, one of the Air Force's premier installations; and large college campuses such as the University of Nebraska Omaha and Creighton University.

The district has fluctuated back and forth in recent presidential elections, but this year its importance has increased. If Kamala Harris wins the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but loses all remaining swing states, she would have 269 electoral votes – a slim chance of victory. This means the single vote from the Omaha area could decide the presidency. Donald Trump's allies have tried in recent weeks to get the Nebraska Legislature to change state law to make the state return to rewarding electoral votes on a statewide basis, in an attempt to deny Harris that likely vote. Trump himself posted angrily about the situation, and Lindsey Graham, of all people, traveled to Nebraska to try to woo lawmakers. It didn't work.

Even before the failed attempt to change the law, the district's sole vote was leaning toward Harris. A New York Just/The Siena College poll released Saturday morning showed her leading Trump 53-43. As Ian Russell, a veteran Democratic activist who has worked in Nebraska, described it: “The national trend of Democrats being much more competitive in suburban and more highly educated areas is being seen to a greater extent in Omaha.” It has an educated one population, and it's always had a more moderate and independent political sensibility, and now it's really gone against the Republicans.” The respective spending of the two presidential campaigns shows how the district has swung to the left. Nearly $15 million has been or will be spent on broadcasting in Omaha on behalf of the Democratic presidential candidate, while less than $200,000 has been spent or booked for Trump so far.

The failure of the pro-Trump conspiracy wasn't just bad news for Republicans. A committed Republican activist argued that the setback saved the district's congressman, Don Bacon, from certain defeat. A moderate, he has been a constant target for Democrats since his primary election victory in 2016 and has always managed to somehow hang on. Nothing would have done more to anger Democrats and make Republicans happier than a last-minute change. National Republicans have also expressed surprise that Bacon is the rare congressman who has his own political identity in his district and goes out of his way to portray himself as a centrist. However, this task has since become somewhat more difficult for the abortion opponent Bacon Dobbs Decision. His Democratic opponent, state Sen. Tony Vargas, has not hesitated to attack Bacon on the issue.

In a closely divided House, Bacon's seat is seen as uncertain by outside analysts and both candidates have spent millions of dollars on television as he is a key target of the Democrats' Congressional Campaign Committee. He was able to prevail in 2020 thanks to the Biden-Bacon electorate, and in 2024 they will have to become Harris-Bacon voters for him to survive.

JL Spray, one of the state's RNC members, described the district as “a purple dot” in a state that no Democratic presidential candidate has won since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Even if it doesn't necessarily have to be so purple anymore. One of the biggest trends among Omaha Liberals in recent weeks is a simple yard sign with just a blue dot painted on it. This is intended to raise awareness of how important the voices of local progressives are – even if they live in the red.