close
close

Latest Post

Even Kevin Durant was in awe of Joe Flacco when the Colts narrowly lost to the Jaguars How to Watch, Predictions for “SNF”

Tropical Storm Milton is expected to strengthen into a hurricane this evening as the storm slowly tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning, bringing the tropical cyclone somewhere in the middle of the Florida Peninsula.

The storm intensified early Sunday with winds reaching 60 miles per hour.

Heavy rain is expected well ahead of Milton on Sunday and Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion at 8 a.m. More systemic rain is expected to begin the week, bringing the risk of flooding.

The storm's waves will impact the Gulf Coast beginning today and increasing throughout the week.

Hurricane Center forecasters expect Milton to be a minor hurricane, but there is still uncertainty about the intensity and direction of Tropical Storm Milton. The storm could hit Florida as a major hurricane or weaken due to various factors.

“Intensity prediction is very complex. First, Milton is a small cyclone, and such systems can become both stronger and weaker very quickly. Secondly, although the cyclone will remain in a favorable environment for about 60 (hours), “after this period it will experience strong shear and entrainment of dry air,” meteorologists said in their NHC Milton discussion at 5 a.m.

“Regardless of the details, there is growing confidence that a strong hurricane with life-threatening threats will hit parts of Florida's west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should monitor this system closely and listen to local authorities,” forecasters reported.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

Accuweather forecasters said in their early Sunday reports that Milton will strengthen into a major Category 3 hurricane before making landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida, on Wednesday morning.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton could quickly become a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could trigger a life-threatening storm surge. Please ensure your family and friends in this area are prepared.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for several Florida counties ahead of Hurricane Milton, which could bring Category 3 winds and flooding to already heavily damaged communities along the Gulf Coast and beyond. The Florida counties included in the emergency declaration span the entire peninsula. They are:

Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola , Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter and Volusia.

Tropical Storm Milton in the Gulf of Mexico

  • Location: 345 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico; approximately 860 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida
  • Maximum continuous wind: 60 miles per hour
  • Movement: Northwest at 5 miles per hour
  • Pressure: 991MB

➤ Tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain

At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.6 north and longitude 94.9 west. Milton moved slowly eastward overnight, and east-northeast movement is forecast over the next few days, followed by faster northeastward movement. On the forecast course, Milton is expected to cross the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 60 mph with stronger gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast for the next few days. Milton is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane as it moves over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center.

Land hazards from Tropical Storm Milton

RAIN: Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches, locally up to 12 inches, are expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall creates the risk of flash flooding, urban and urban flooding, and minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

SURFING: Waves generated by the system will begin affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These waves are expected to spread north and east along much of the Gulf Coast through early next week. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult your local weather office products.

Key messages from Tropical Storm Milton

  1. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching or near strong hurricane strength when it approaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek.
  2. Beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday, portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula face an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts. Residents of these areas should ensure they have a hurricane plan, follow all advice from local authorities, and check back for forecast updates.
  3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton on Sunday and Monday, with heavy rainfall directly related to the system expected later Tuesday night into Wednesday. This rainfall creates the risk of flash flooding, urban and urban flooding, and minor to moderate river flooding.

Maximum wind forecast for Tropical Storm Milton

  • 5 a.m.: 50 miles per hour
  • 12 hours: 65 miles per hour
  • 24 hours: 75 miles per hour
  • 36 hours: 80 miles per hour
  • 48 hours: 90 miles per hour
  • 60 hours: 100 miles per hour
  • 72 hours: 105 miles per hour
  • 96 hours: 80 miles per hour
  • 120 hours: 65 mph (post-tropical, extra-tropical)

Tropical Storm Milton: Spaghetti Models

Special note on spaghetti models: The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best-performing models to create its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Fourteen

Track of Tropical Storm Milton

Hurricane Kirk: What you should know

  • Location: 1,270 miles west of the Azores
  • Maximum continuous wind: 105 miles per hour
  • Movement: Northwest at 23 miles per hour

➤ Hurricane Kirk Spaghetti Models

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Kirk was near latitude 33.5 north and longitude 49.0 west. Kirk is moving north-northeast at about 23 miles per hour. As Kirk moves across the northeast Atlantic, acceleration toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days.

Effects: Waves caused by Kirk affect the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the East Coast of the United States. These waves will continue to spread northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and to the Azores on Monday. These waves can create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Hurricane Leslie: What you should know

  • Location: 1,405 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
  • Maximum continuous wind: 85 miles per hour
  • Movement: West-northwest at 10 mph

➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Storm Leslie

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Leslie was near latitude 12.9 north and longitude 37.3 west. Leslie is moving northwest at about 10 miles per hour, and this general movement is expected to continue over the next few days.

Effects: No impact on the country is expected.

What else is there and how likely is it to intensify?

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west or west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cape Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday and stakeholders there should monitor its progress.

  • Chance of creation within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
  • Training opportunity over 7 days: low, 30 percent.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

What do the colored areas on the NHC map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Excessive rainfall forecast

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

When is hurricane season over?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

What's next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

On By John Fenwick

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Post