James Cleverly has momentum after the latest vote in the Tory leadership contest – but the end result is far from clear | Politics News

There is no doubt about who is now ahead in the Tory leadership contest.

James Cleverly relegated his rivals to first place in the pole vault – Reap the benefits of a well-thought-out, heartfelt conference speech designed to make the party feel good.

Politics Latest: Minister refuses to apologize for viral tweet

A pitch from the Tory center that has so far apparently been well received by all sides. Hopes in rival camps that the conference counted for little have not been confirmed.

But that alone doesn't guarantee victory, and beyond that, nothing is certain.

Tomorrow there will be another knockout round before the approximately 170,000 members have their say. What clues do the results and briefings give about what happens next?

Today told us three things as the remaining teams battle it out tonight to ensure their candidate makes it to the final two.

What have we learned:

• Kemi Badenoch explicitly supports the right-wing Tory party, suggesting that she is making little effort to appeal to the majority of Tom Stimmehat's supporters, who are mostly – although not exclusively – single-nation Conservatives. This evening she demanded in a statement: “The right of the Conservative Party must now unite around Kemi” – suggesting that she is still trying to suppress Robert Jenrick's supporters, even if she fell behind Jenrick today. This is a particularly bold strategy as some members of the ERG (European Research Group) fell out with Ms Badenoch when Rishi Sunak was prime minister.

• Robert Jenrick is losing momentum. Rival camps are benefiting from a decline in support for Mr Jenrick, who fell from 33 MPs in the last round of voting to 31 votes today. However, Jenrick supporters told me he would get 35-40 votes today, suggesting he has fallen well short of expectations. It appears that the conference did him some damage – his speech seemed less well received than others – and cost him the top spot among MPs.

• Is James Cleverly so far ahead that he dares to take Jenrick as his opponent in the final round? In the YouGov poll of Tory members, carried out before the conference speeches, Mr Jenrick was just four points ahead of Mr Cleverlywhile Ms. Badenoch was further ahead. Given the narrow margins between second and third place, could he “borrow” a few votes to get an easier opponent across the finish line?

YouGov polling showed that Tory MPs today edged out the most popular contender for the crown among the general public – Mr Stimmehat – while Messrs Cleverly and Jenrick were neck-and-neck and Ms Badenoch was the least popular.

But what do the all-important Tory members actually care about?

Read more:
According to the survey, Labor's lead over the Tories has fallen to just one point
Johnson denies taunting the public by claiming they were “longing” for lockdown rules

YouGov's AI Topic Quantifier got Tory members to say what qualities they want in a leader.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up to date with the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

The members' desire for “integrity and honesty” came first, and “conservative values” came second. Only a tiny fraction – 2% – wanted to “win the election.”

This underlines why it is far from clear what the outcome will be, no matter what the dynamics may be tonight.