JD Vance's debate performance is about convincing voters he's ready for the job

Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, hope to use Tuesday night's vice presidential debate to boost their respective running mate's chances in November. Facing a gaping popularity gap with Walz, Vance prepares for the two traditional mock debates – with Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., filling in for Walz – and the constant back and forth. Vance keeps up with reporters Running.

But as vice president, Vance would have to be ready for one main task: assuming the presidency. It is a duty that nine vice presidents before him have had to fulfill. It's also a possibility we need to discuss since Donald Trump, if he returns to the White House, would be the oldest person ever sworn in as president. Unfortunately, Vance is not at all prepared to intervene if Trump is no longer able to serve as president.

It's true that the vice presidency itself was originally something of an afterthought for the country's founding fathers. They assigned the vice president the task of presiding over the Senate, only to give that role a specific purpose aside from being a second-in-command. But Article II, which ostensibly regulates what happens when a vacancy in the presidential office arises, is not crystal clear: It only says: “In the event of the impeachment of the President, his death, his resignation, or his incapacity to discharge his duties.” The powers and duties of the said office shall be vested in the Vice President.”

Follow live updates on the 2024 Vice Presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.

The lack of specificity was a problem in the first major test, when President William Henry Harrison died in 1841 after just 31 days in office. The question facing Vice President John Tyler was whether he would be an “acting” or “temporary” president, someone who merely assumed the duties of the presidency, or whether he would assume the office himself. Tyler chose the latter and immediately took the presidential oath of office. And while he was never a popular chief executive, no one seemed inclined to challenge this new precedent regarding presidential succession.

In modern times, the role of the vice president extends beyond constitutional duties to include all policy portfolios delegated by the president. But the essential task remains to take over the presidency if necessary. It's almost certain that at some point during the debate, the debate moderators will ask Vance and Walz if they're up to the task.

Of course, both candidates will say “yes” when asked; What matters is how many viewers believe their answers. And when you look at the experience of the two candidates, there is much more evidence of Walz's readiness than Vance. The Democrat is in his second term as governor of Minnesota and has years of experience running an executive office. Before that, he spent twelve years in the House of Representatives and was able to see up close how the federal government works and how the legislative sausage is made.

By contrast, Vance is only in his second year as an elected official. He has not passed any major legislation, and several of the bills he has introduced have had no cosponsors at all. Before winning his seat in 2022, he was an author and a Silicon Valley fan and served four years in the Marines, mostly as a war correspondent.

That makes Vance the least experienced vice presidential candidate since then-Gov. Sarah Palin from Alaska was selected for the GOP party in 2008. The public was deeply skeptical of Palin's willingness to take over after less than two years as governor, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted on the day by Sen. John McCain, R-. Arizona, chose her as its vice president. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said she was “willing to serve as president if necessary,” 33% said she was not, and 29% had “no opinion” about the then-unknown governor. At the time, according to ABC News, it was “the lowest vote of confidence for a vice president since the elder George Bush chose then-Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988.”

Incredibly, Vance managed to break this record. According to a YouGov poll conducted in late July, only 29% of respondents believed Vance was ready to serve as president, 38% said he was not ready and another 33% were unsure. Vance did slightly better in the August YouGov poll — rising to 30% of those who thought he was ready — but still trailed Walz in that regard.

Still, if elected, Vance could well become the youngest vice president to ascend to the Oval Office midway through his term. It's true that Trump himself had never held office and had almost no experience to become president when he took office in 2017. But after four years in the White House, even he has more qualifications than Vance.

It becomes even more striking when you look at Vice President Kamala Harris' resume. She has spent her entire career in public service, from district attorney of San Francisco to attorney general of California to a four-year term as a senator before her current post is a heartbeat away from the presidency. The fact that President Joe Biden quickly endorsed her after his exit shows his trust in her. Meanwhile, when Trump was asked whether Vance could fill his shoes “on day one if necessary,” the former president changed the subject entirely and turned his attention entirely to himself.

And yet, despite this huge gap in experience, when Harris took the lead in late July, Vance claimed to be upset that he wouldn't be running against her himself. “Talk about withdrawals,” he said. “I was told I would debate Kamala Harris and now President Trump is going to debate her. If I’m honest with you, I’m kind of pissed about it.”

That's a level of self-respect I couldn't even begin to muster. Can you imagine how thoroughly Harris would have dismantled Vance in an undercard event, seeing how well she handled Trump as she fought to become the next president? Instead, we'll have to settle for Walz's performance on Tuesday, as he makes it clear that only one person on this stage can be entrusted with the second-highest office in the land.