Lebanon fears a repeat of past Israeli invasions

For Charbel – as well as for the relatively small group of Israeli critics of the escalation with Hezbollah – the fear that hangs over all of this is that history will repeat itself. The Israeli invasions in 1982 and 2006 became more extensive and deadlier than originally thought.

Those fears are not unfounded, Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst and head of intelligence at the consulting firm Le Beck, told NBC News in an email Tuesday morning.

“These concerns are legitimate because even if Israel seeks a limited operation, it can easily become even more drawn in, either for military reasons … or for political reasons if hawks within the government push to become the target of the operation to expand,” he said.

Fawaz A. Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said he feared that the Israeli military was “trying to weaken Hezbollah's defenses” and probe its vulnerabilities with initial raids in advance of a possible larger attack.

“Strategic failure”

Israel's ground operation was met with a new wave of international concern and condemnation.

The United States expressed support for a limited Israeli operation, but a National Security Council spokesman warned of the risk of “mission creep.” Israel actually planned a major invasion but decided to scale back under pressure from Washington, an administration official and U.S. officials said. But the Biden administration remains concerned that the mission could be expanded, the administration official said.

This has happened before.

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon while the country was in civil war, marking the beginning of an occupation that would last nearly two decades.

The offensive initially targeted activists from the Palestine Liberation Organization, which was founded in the Egyptian capital Cairo in 1964, shortly after the “Nakba,” which means “catastrophe” in Arabic and refers to the forced expulsion of an estimated 750,000 Palestinians from their homes Preparation for the creation of Israel in 1948. Many sought refuge in Lebanon.

Thousands of Israeli troops and tanks crossed the border, culminating in a deadly siege of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. In a massacre in the city's Shatila refugee camp and the nearby Sabra district, hundreds of Palestinians and some Lebanese nationals were killed within days by Israel-backed Lebanese Christian militia commandos.