Live Updates: Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, thousands flee

It is well documented that the Tampa Bay area is extremely vulnerable to hurricanes and that the region has also dodged major hurricanes over the last century.

It's far too early for residents around Tampa Bay to breathe a sigh of relief, but Hurricane Milton moved further south than expected on Tuesday, causing the National Hurricane Center's forecast to shift southward.

Meteorologists usually make it a point not to focus on the exact trajectory or even the cone, since significant impacts always occur outside the cone. In fact, the National Hurricane Center's cone is only designed to capture the storm's path two-thirds of the time. This means that every third storm track runs outside the cone. However, this precise trace is very important when it comes to the details of the effects.

Hurricane Milton's worst storm surge is expected to occur near the landfall point and to the south, depending on the angle of approach to the coast. If current trajectories showing a path toward Sarasota are accurate, the worst of the storm surge would be in places like Sarasota and Venice, as well as southerly flood-prone locations like Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. On the northern side of the storm, winds across Tampa Bay would push most of the water out of the bay and possibly even lower water levels, as happened during Hurricane Ian, which made landfall near Fort Myers in 2022.

This current trajectory is only about 40 miles south of Tampa or 20 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, and the NHC warns that uncertainty remains and further fluctuations – north or south – are possible. It's also very important to note that Tampa is still in the realm of uncertainty.

Even with a potential track south of Tampa that would spare this area the worst of the storm, there is still a significant risk of catastrophic hurricane-force winds and flooding rain. Hurricane Milton is expected to become a major storm when it makes landfall, and much of the Florida Peninsula will feel the storm's impact.