Maui weather forecast for October 2, 2024: Maui now

Photo credit: Tyler Rooke

West side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs: 80 to 87. East wind gusting to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows: 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph, decreasing to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Airy. Highs: 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph, shifting northeast at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

South side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 76. North winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Airy. Highs around 88. North winds up to 20 mph, shifting northeast at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North bank

Today: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny. Airy. Scattered showers. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 68 near 5,000 feet. East winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows range from about 72 near the coast to about 52 near 5,000 feet. Southeast winds gusting up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Airy. Scattered showers. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 67 near 5,000 feet. East winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs: 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting east after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Airy. Highs: 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Inland

Today: Mostly sunny with a few showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a few showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a few showers. Lows 44 to 56. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds gusting up to 15 mph, increasing to around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny. Airy. Scattered showers. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 68 near 5,000 feet. East winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Lows range from about 72 near the coast to about 52 near 5,000 feet. Southeast winds gusting up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny. Airy. Scattered showers. Highs range from 79 to 84 near the coast and around 67 near 5,000 feet. East winds gusting up to 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Airy. Highs: 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Airy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Airy. Highs: 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs: 72 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs: 71 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Summary

Moderate east to east-southeast winds will continue to blow today with passing windward and mauka showers. As winds weaken Thursday into the weekend, an afternoon sea breeze and an overnight land breeze are expected to develop. An upper level disturbance may result in heavier showers this weekend. Then moderate trades could return early next week.

discussion

A band of elevated, low humidity is moving northwestward across the western end of the island chain early this morning, with low clouds and showers primarily favoring windward and mauka areas. However, with a southeasterly steering component, some showers may better skirt the island terrain and move over leeward areas at times. Additionally, a weak mid-level low northeast of Kauai could help strengthen some of these showers as the plume of moisture moves up the island chain during the early morning hours. By late morning, drier air will move in from east to west, helping to partially reduce the shower cover.
A surface ridge located far northeast of the state will maintain moderate fluctuations through this evening before a combination of low and low temperatures weakens the ridge and allows fluctuations to become mild to moderate through the weekend. This will allow sea breeze activity to expand across the entire island chain, causing clouds to form and showers to occur in wind-sheltered inland areas each afternoon. Whether the wind will weaken enough to allow a cleaner sea breeze pattern remains to be seen. Forecast forecasts continue to indicate a moderate cutoff low forming over the state this weekend, which would increase the potential for heavier showers on Saturday and/or Sunday due to increasing instability aloft and allow for heavier downpours in showers.
As we begin next week, the forecast forecasts will begin to diverge more significantly, but the middle low will eventually fill and lift northeast, increasing the pressure gradient and returning trading to moderate.

aviation

A ridge north of the state will maintain trade winds over the region today, with clouds and showers concentrated in windward areas. A cloud cloud moved across the islands overnight, initially causing some darkening of the mountains on the Big Island, Maui and Molokai. This area shifted westward around midnight, resulting in darkening of the mountains on Oahu and Kauai. AIRMET Sierra, currently in effect for these islands, is likely to be discontinued sometime in the next few hours as the plume rises to the north and west while thinning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the leeward areas.
Background winds are expected to gradually weaken starting Wednesday night, which would allow for sea breezes during the day and land breezes overnight.

marine

Surface high pressure lies approximately 1,100 nautical miles from Oahu and creates a pressure gradient across the islands that is narrow enough to maintain generally moderate trade winds throughout the day. Local channeled winds, particularly through the Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels, often reach fresh strengths. High pressure northeast of the state is weakening as a low and associated front slowly approaches north of the islands and impacts the high from the west. This will weaken the gradient of the high over the islands and cause winds to decrease to gentle to locally moderate breezes by the end of the week. High pressure will build in the east of the islands as the week progresses. This will restore regional differentials and ultimately bring Sunday-Monday trading back to moderate to locally fresh speeds.
A persistent small, short to medium-term northwest-north swell has peaked and will continue today and then begin to gradually retreat tonight into Thursday. A pair of overlapping small, short to medium period northerly waves will produce small surf along the north coast this weekend. There is a chance of a larger, long-lasting northwesterly swell arriving on Monday and Tuesday due to late week storms coupled with a frontal passage in the Gulf of Alaska. As of now, this swell will produce surf likely below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria. The sustained south-southwest rise of about 2 feet peaked early this morning and will continue through this afternoon before tapering off late this evening. A new and larger, longer period of southerly swell originating from storms east southeast of New Zealand is expected to fill on Saturday evening or early Sunday, peak on Sunday and then continue into Monday. This swell will provide a significant boost to the late season south coast surf, potentially pushing surf to near HSA levels.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data courtesy of NOAA.gov