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Conservative commentator Charlie Kirk warned that the decision by millions of born-again and mainstream Christians not to vote in the upcoming election could pose a serious threat to Donald Trump's re-election efforts.

Citing polling data from pollster George Barna, Kirk described the situation as a “five-alarm fire” for Trump, noting that 41 million born-again Christians and 32 million mainstream Christians do not plan to vote.

“The local church must be activated to explain why elections are critical,” Kirk wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, calling on Christian leaders to mobilize their communities to the polls.

“We cannot expect President Trump to demonstrate a more Christian ethos if the church refuses to vote. We cannot expect President Trump to become more pro-life if our own people do not support him at the ballot box. The local church MUST be activated,” Kirk said.

Trump has fiercely courted white conservative evangelicals since entering politics nearly a decade ago. He now sells Trump-themed Bibles, promoting the coup Roe v. Wadeand encouraged Christians to vote for him.

About 8 in 10 white evangelical voters voted for Trump in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, a comprehensive voter survey.

But the potential voter shortage comes at a time when Trump faces the challenge of maintaining support among Christian pastors.

A recent Lifeway Research poll found a shift in his support among evangelical pastors since 2020. In the new poll, 61 percent of evangelical pastors said they plan to vote for Trump, up from 68 percent in September 2020.

In the broader race, Trump had a 32-point lead over President Joe Biden in 2020 (53 percent to 21 percent), while the current poll shows him with a 26-point lead over Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris (50 percent to 24 percent).

Trump Christians
Participants pray at the Evangelicals for Trump event in Miami on January 3, 2020. Christians who do not vote in the 2024 election could put the former president at a disadvantage.

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The decline in support for Trump among Christian and evangelical groups comes as the former president faces widespread criticism from those movements over his wavering stance on abortion during this campaign. Trump has repeatedly downplayed the importance of abortion, saying it is no longer a “big factor” in elections and predicting it will become a “very small issue” in this year's vote.

Additionally, Trump recently criticized Florida's six-week abortion ban, calling it “too short” and suggested allowing more time before restricting abortion access, prompting backlash from abortion opponents.

Although Trump later changed his stance, his reputation was already tarnished among staunch abortion opponents like Albert Mohler, the Southern Baptist leader. Mohler, a prominent figure in conservative Christian politics, warned that Trump's inconsistent positions could cause conservative Christian voters to either stay home or reconsider their decisions in November.

Meanwhile, grassroots initiatives like Evangelicals for Harris are working to persuade disaffected evangelical voters to support Harris or sit out the election altogether. The Rev. Jim Ball, the group's president, said its focus is on mobilizing evangelical voters in swing states who may no longer feel comfortable supporting Trump but are hesitant to support a Democrat.

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