MLB Playoffs: Why Yankees Should Want Royals in the ALDS

The 2024 MLB playoffs are underway and there were already a few surprises after the first day of play. The Tigers went to Houston and won Game 1 3-1 after presumptive AL Cy Young Tarik Skubal had a dominant performance, while Cole Ragans gave the Royals a similarly dominant start, shutting out the Orioles 1-0 in their Wild Card opener Series at Camden Yards.

Today we will look at the teams from the last matchup and try to figure out which of the Orioles and Royals are the preferred opponents for the Yankees in the ALDS. Josh will follow me and champion the O's; It's my job to convince readers that it's the royals. In fact, it was the desirable draw for the Yankees' first round playoffs.

The first point to consider was simple straight regular season records. The Orioles clearly have the upper hand in this regard, winning the season series 8-5 while outscoring the Yankees 62-56. Meanwhile, the Yankees led the season series against Kansas City and won five of seven meetings while outscoring the Royals 42-24. Only a disaster from Clay Holmes saved KC from a 1-6 record. While this regular season dominance is by no means* a guarantee of continued success against the Royals, it at least gives them the confidence that they can beat them again.

*For example: The 2007 Yankees went undefeated in the regular season against Cleveland before losing three of four games in the ALDS.

As Josh will suggest in his post, many of Baltimore's cornerstones on offense have weathered second-half slumps; However, I still feel like the Royals have the less potent offense behind Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Even with the return of Vinnie Pasquantino — who missed the last meeting between New York and Kansas City while recovering from a broken hand — the Royals' offense is far less frightening than Baltimore's.

In fact, Baltimore finished with the third-highest wRC+ (115) in baseball, while Kansas City finished 20th (96). Kansas City had 10 batters reach 250 plate appearances while the Orioles had nine. Each of the nine Orioles performed above league average in offensive performance, while only four Royals did so.

While the Royals certainly have starters who can shut down an opposing lineup on their day – as we saw with Ragans yesterday and in his start on September 11th at Yankee Stadium, and with Seth Lugo in his last outing against the Bombers – would like to I absolutely do not want to be a part of Corbin Burnes in a five-game playoff series. In his last three starts against the Yankees, Burnes threw eight hitless innings, six frames of two-run ball and most recently nine strikeouts over five innings of one-run ball. Even when it comes to facing the Yankees, the two men behind the Baltimore ace are no problem. In four starts against the Yankees this year, Zach Eflin posted a 3.18 ERA, while Dean Kremer gave up three or fewer runs in nine of his 12 career appearances against New York.

I also like to look at the dimensions of the ballpark and how they interact with potential lineups; I believe the Yankees have an advantage in this regard in a series against Kansas City as well. The Yankees have two hitters in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton who can leave any part of any stadium, and I think that gives them an edge over the home team at Kauffman Stadium. While KC isn't a walk in the park for hitters, it's not as difficult for righties as the specter of Walltimore stealing extra bases from her fellow righties. Additionally, Baltimore has a far more dangerous roster of left-handed hitters – players I would rather not have given the opportunity to use the short porch of Yankee Stadium and the flag court at Oriole Park.

The Yankees are clearly in the driver's seat among all AL playoff teams, with home-field advantage through the ALCS and with an all-world slugger pairing of Judge and Juan Soto at the top of the lineup that no other AL contender can boast. I would feel confident in a series against the Orioles or the Royals, as both teams end their regular seasons on a downturn – KC in particular went 4-9 to enter the Wild Card round – but the Yankees' track record against the The Royals City's lineup makes Kansas City the most desirable ALDS opponent.