NFL Week 6 lines to bet on now and predictions to wait for

The NFL schedule will be one-third complete at the start of week six.

That's more than enough information for oddsmakers to push NFL odds even further and squeeze out every bit of value in one of the most efficient sports betting markets.

To compete against the bookies, football bettors need to make sure they get the best numbers on their weekly NFL picks and predictions. Sometimes this number is the opening line on Sunday evenings and sometimes it appears later in the week.

I'll go through the NFL odds for Week 6 and circle the best spreads and totals Bet now and which one might be more beneficial for you Bet later.

Week 6: Bet Now, Bet Later Tips

Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (-1.5): Bet now

Okay, let's not get too hung up on the Chicago Bears. A one-sided victory over the pitiful Panthers isn't exactly a “royal victory.”

However, we saw Chicago play its best two-way game of the year, with its disruptive defense delivering game-winning plays and the offense racking up 424 yards and 36 points.

Over the last three weeks, the Bears have accumulated 1,083 yards of offense against Carolina, Los Angeles and Indianapolis. All of those gains haven't quite been converted into points until this weekend, but it makes Chicago the No. 12 offense in EPA per game over that span.

Week 6 sends another terrible defense their way, with the Jacksonville Jaguars ranking 31st in EPA per game on the season. The Jaguars did everything they could to avoid their first win of the season last Sunday, allowing 447 yards to the Colts before grinding out a 37-34 win.

The opening odds have Chicago just a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite in London, but some bets are already at -2.5. Given the public appeal of the Bears and Caleb Williams, that line could find a field goal very soon. Bet on the Bears now.

Currently the best odds to bet on Bears are -1.5

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): Bet later

It's the Beltway Bowl!

This non-conference matchup only happens every four years and the Washington Cammanders franchise has never been hotter heading into this DMV showcase. The Commanders are 4-1 SU and ATS, with the play of rookie QB Jayden Daniels making them favorites of the betting public.

Washington has put 114 points on the scoreboard over the past three weeks but faces its toughest test yet. Not only will the Baltimore Ravens be able to compete with the Commies on offense, the defense will also be stepping up after Cincinnati picked up a narrow OT win in Week 5.

The books started with the Ravens at 7 points at home, but we see a drop to -6.5 with cheaper juice on the home favorite. That line could slip to the key number -6 if a public game against Washington looms.

If you don't jump on the Commanders bandwagon in Week 6, wait and get Baltimore -6.

Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Giants (over 47.5): Bet now

Let's play a game: Which QB finishes in the top 10 in CPOE and EPA per dropback over the last three weeks after finishing in the bottom 10 in the same advanced stats over the first two weeks?

Answer: Daniel Jones.

I don't know what has gotten into the much-maligned New York Giants quarterback, but Jones has been a man possessed over the last three games. His completion percentage, air yards and composure in the pocket were top notch.

It propelled New York to 8th in the EPA per dropback, and what's even more impressive is how easily Jones and the offense moved the ball against Seattle's defense in Week 5 despite top WR Malik Nabers not playing. The rookie sensation should be back for this non-conference matchup with Cincinnati.

The Cincinnati Bengals are in a panic after missing an overtime game in Week 5. Cincinnati dismantled a very strong Ravens defense for 38 points on 442 yards and has now scored a total of 105 points in the last three games – all clearly their respective overs. The Bengals are ranked 3rd in EPA per game heading into this trip to East Rutherford.

This over/under total for Sunday Night Football started at just 47.5 points, but some trades are already at 49.5 in the hour since publication. Grab the shortest amount possible because this baby is turning 50.

The current best betting odds are over 47.5

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos (under 37): Bet later

This AFC West war started with a total score of 37.5 and fell to 36.5 before getting back to 37 points on Sunday night. I'm wondering if this number will actually go back to where it was or even reach 38 O/U later this week.

The Denver Broncos posted a 34-point performance in their win over Las Vegas in Week 5, which looks good at first glance and could push that number up. Denver was outrebounded and capitalized on three Raiders turnovers, one of which was returned 100 yards for a touchdown.

The Los Angeles Chargers enjoyed a bye in Week 5, giving their numerous injuries time to heal. Attention will be on QB Justin Hebert and his ankle, but the Bolts' defense should be back up and running in Week 6. Joey Bosa, Derwin James and Ja'Sir Taylor all missed the Week 4 loss to Kansas City, in which LA still held the Chiefs to 17 points.

This stopping unit is No. 2 in the EPA allowed per game (with Week 5 primetime games still to come), while the Broncos rank just behind LA at No. 3 in this metric.

On offense, the Chargers' run-heavy system involves reducing yardage while eating up time of possession. Los Angeles runs at the fifth-highest rate and one of the slowest paces, ranks 31st in plays per game and has the fifth-lowest no-huddle rate.

The under-40 totals are 4-8 over/under (67% unders) so far in 2024, and this could be a low-scoring slugfest. See if this total increases later before returning to the under.

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