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The New York Liberty, led by Sabrina Ionescu, defeated the defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs.

Now the Liberty are waiting for the winner of the Connecticut Sun – Minnesota Lynx series, who will play the deciding Game 5 on Tuesday.

But which team would provide the Liberty with an easier path to winning their first Finals trophy? Here's a breakdown of how the Liberty have fared against Connecticut and Minnesota this season and what else to look for as the WNBA Finals begin Thursday.

New York Liberty maintains season advantage over Connecticut Sun

The Liberty played the Connecticut Sun four times in the regular season, losing 3-1 to the Brionna Jones-led Sun. The Liberty's only loss to Connecticut was on August 24, when they lost 64-72.

The Sun may struggle to keep up with the Liberty's offensive firepower, but can be helped by their team's defense.

The Sun averaged 80.1 points per game during the regular season, while their opponents averaged 73.6 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Liberty have the second-most points per game in the regular season, averaging 84.3, while giving up 76.5 points per game.

The Liberty also have four players averaging double-digit points: Sabrina Ionescu (18.2), Jonquel Jones (14.2), Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (11.8) and Breanna Stewart (15.2).

Minnesota has season advantage over Liberty and beats squad for Commissioner's Cup

On paper, the Minnesota Lynx likely pose a greater challenge to the Liberty in their pursuit of the WNBA Championship.

The Lynx have a 3-1 regular season record against the Liberty, including a 94-89 victory over the Liberty in the 2024 Commissioner's Cup.

The Lynx, who finished just behind first-place Liberty with a 30-10 regular-season record, averaged 82 points per game and gave up 75.6 points this season.

A closer look at the stats shows that it may not ultimately matter whether the Liberty face either Connecticut or Minnesota, as the Liberty may simply outscore either opponent.

The Liberty outscored their opponents by an average of 9.2 points per game during the regular season.

The Connecticut Sun's average winning margin was 6.5 points and the Minnesota Lynx's average winning margin was 6.4 points.

Damon C. Williams is a Philadelphia-based journalist covering trending topics in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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