Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who will win and why?

Two Big 12 rivals, both losing and 0-1 in conference play, look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State hosts No. 23 Kansas State in Week 5 of college football on Saturday. 20 Oklahoma State.

Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of winning on the road to BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as the team allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered three turnovers. That ranked Kansas State just 117th nationally in pass production per game for the week.

Oklahoma State is averaging nearly 310 yards through the air per game but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last three games and averaged just over 3 yards per carry during that time.

The Cowboys are 2-1 against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category this weekend.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what to look for when Kansas State meets Oklahoma State, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Let the ball run. Ollie Gordon is college football's reigning Doak Walker Award winner, but has missed a total of 258 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, has averaged less than 3 yards per carry in the last two games, and has yet to reach 50 against one Yards run FBS defense.

He still needs to adjust as opponents push him into the box, and the Wildcats could pose another formidable challenge. They rank 16th in the FBS in rush defense, allowing just over 83 yards per game, and are 17th in giving up just 2.75 yards per carry to opposing defenders.

2. The same goes for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. Overall, the team averages 6.5 yards per attempt, ranking 6th nationally.

An area of ​​relative weakness? They only have 4 total rushing TDs this year, thanks in part to the offense ranking a mediocre 62nd in third-down production and moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.

3. Pokes can fling it. While the Cowboys' ground game has faltered, Alan Bowman is picking up the slack, leading an Air Attack that ranks 15th in pass production, averaging nearly 311 yards per game and hitting nearly 63 percent of its attempts.

But the Wildcats could throw him off his rhythm because they have a strong front seven that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State ranks 14th in the FBS with 7.8 TFLs per game, and Brendan Mott ranks 12th nationally with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

Most analytical models give the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Oklahoma State is expected to win the game in most 52.9 percent of the computer's recent simulations.

That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The model predicts a very close game as Oklahoma State is expected to be one point better than Kansas State on the same field.

More… Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the analytics say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas State is a 4.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State.

The book gives the total score as 57.5 points per game.

FanDuel has the moneyline odds for the overall win for Oklahoma State at +164 and Kansas State at -200.

In a game full of early Big 12 title prospects, it should come down to which team runs the ball better and has the time in the possession battle.

Bowman has the arm and receivers to credibly test the Wildcats' secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and reduce the Cowboys' offense to one dimension.

Kansas State's ability to limit ground gains at the top combined with its strong rushing ability should be enough to accomplish this, but it will be close.

College football headquarters chooses…

More… Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

When: Sat. September 28th
Time: 11am Central
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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