Polls show the Vance-Walz vice presidential debate could change the course of the election

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As Republicans and Democrats prepare for tonight's vice presidential debate, exclusive polls show this is an event that has the potential to change everything.

According to a Prolific poll, two-thirds of Democrats believe the vice presidential nominee has a significant impact on the overall presidential contenders The Independent.

Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance will debate Democratic Vice Presidential pick Tim Walz today, Tuesday, October 1, at 9 p.m. ET on CBS.

For live updates ahead of the debate, click here.

According to the survey, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,000 respondents on the Prolific platform on September 22, three in four Americans (75 percent) plan to watch tonight's vice presidential debate.

Vance said he “didn't need to prepare as much” for his first duel – despite reports to the contrary that he had prepared with Minnesota GOP Representative Tom Emmer as a replacement for Walz's “popular demeanor.”

Although the vice presidential debate appears to be overshadowed by last month's Trump-Harris duel, polls suggest the event will be far from insignificant for many voters.

Our poll shows that a third (30 percent) of viewers had a more positive opinion of Kamala Harris after the September presidential debate.

This includes 21 percent of independent voters, who represent a decisive factor in the election outcome.

Overall, most respondents said their opinion of Donald Trump had remained the same or had worsened (14 percent), including independents.

Just over half of Americans (56 percent) believe the vice presidential candidate has a significant impact on the overall outcome. This number rises to two-thirds (66 percent) of Democrats who place great importance on the choice of vice president.

This may not be surprising given that Democratic nominee Harris is the current vice president.

In fact, when incumbent President Joe Biden ran in 2020, there was a lot of anticipation surrounding his running mate's choice, with particular focus on his decision to choose a woman of color as his running mate.

This year, Harris' campaign was strategic in choosing her No. 2 candidate. The final lineup consisted of various white men from the Democratic Party before Minnesota Governor Walz was selected.

Republicans are evenly split on the vice presidential issue: 49 percent say the vice presidential pick matters, while 51 percent say it doesn't.

In 2016, Trump chose then-Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, strategically underscoring his own lack of experience by choosing a mainstream conservative politician with decades of experience in the House of Representatives. But this year he did the opposite and chose the much younger and inexperienced Vance, who took office just a year ago.

Andrew Gordon, senior research advisor at Prolific, said: “Vice presidents are traditionally seen as supporting the presidential candidate in US elections, but this time we are seeing a greater influence than usual.”

“The polling data showing that two-thirds of Democrats say the vice presidential choice will influence their vote underscores this and may reflect a time when concerns about the continuity of leadership or the candidates' health may be rising – especially with older presidential candidates like Biden and Trump.”

Six former vice presidents went on to become president, while 19 ran for the top spot, meaning today's debate could well produce a future presidential candidate.

The latest success story in the vice-presidential-to-presidential pipeline is incumbent President Biden, who maintained a close public relationship with Barack Obama during the two terms he served as his right-hand man.

Gordon also noted that previous polls suggested that only 2 percent of voters were inclined to change their behavior at the ballot box as a result of a debate.

Still, he added, “It's a warning shot for the Republican campaign that this pattern of improved perceptions of Harris and decreased perceptions of Trump holds true for voters in all seven major swing states – critical areas where Trump needs to win over voters.” .”

“The VP debate could therefore be of significant importance this election cycle in bolstering Republican moderate support, given Trump's perceived weak performance in the ABC presidential debate.”