“The Wild Robot” has what it takes to turn its $35 million opening into a long, successful run

Without a recognizable brand, it's harder for animated films to find an audience these days. But with critical and moviegoer acclaim on its side, Universal/DreamWorks' “The Wild Robot” has the tools it needs to turn a modest $35 million domestic opening weekend into a long theatrical run that lasts until could last until the end of the year.

“Robot” must buck a historical trend where animated sci-fi films have difficult paths to success. A key strategy will be to use positive reviews and word of mouth to appeal to families and women over 35 at a time when the box office is offering fewer options for this audience.

“Robot” took in $53 million worldwide in its opening weekend, a solid performance against a reported budget of $78 million.

But its domestic box office of $35 million didn't come close to the $43.7 million (adjusted for inflation) that the franchise's spin-off film, “How to Train Your Dragon,” grossed in 2010, or the $63 million -dollars in theatrical release of “WALL-E” in 2008.

Heading into the weekend, the tracking projected that Chris Sanders' animated film would open under $30 million domestically, roughly in the ballpark of the $25 million that Paramount's “Transformers One” brought in last weekend, and the $29.6 Millions of dollars that Disney/Pixar's “Transformers One” grossed. Elemental” in 2023.

“We really had to adjust our expectations for what we believe will be a successful debut,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “A few years ago, a $35 million opening for a film like this might have been a little disappointing. But given what's going on in the market, where the family films that do well are the ones that sell on what people have seen before, that's perhaps more encouraging.”

The Struggle to Sell Animated Science Fiction

At the end of the Disney Renaissance in the 1990s, Disney and other animation studios sought to appeal to young male audiences. The first film to attempt this was Titan AE, which was initially developed by Fox as a live-action feature film titled Planet Ice before turning to animation and released in theaters in the summer of 2000.

Everything seemed to be right. The project featured an all-star cast including Matt Damon, Drew Barrymore, Bill Pullman and John Leguizamo, as well as a filmmaking team that included Don Bluth, Joss Whedon and John August. But the film, which grossed $36.8 million on a reported budget of $90 million, was astronomically expensive because it awkwardly mixed traditional and computer-generated animation.

Disney followed suit with 2001's “Atlantis: The Lost Empire,” a vaguely steampunk adventure that grossed $186 million on a $120 million budget, and “Treasure Planet,” a sci-fi -Reimagining of Robert Louis Stevenson's 2002 classic, which cost more than Atlantis and grossed even less, grossing $109.6 million on a $140 million budget.

More recently, Pixar's “Lightyear,” a sci-fi spin-off of the “Toy Story” series, underperformed in summer 2022 (budget: $200 million, gross: $226 million) and Disney's “Strange World” followed shortly thereafter. ” released Fall 2o22 (Budget: $180 million, Gross: $73.6 million).

And Paramount and Hasbro's “Transformers One,” released in early September, fell 63% this weekend from its opening weekend, grossing just under $39 million in the U.S. and $72 million worldwide. With “The Wild Robot” attracting more viewers than expected, “Transformers One” will need overseas revenue to offset its $75 million theatrical budget before marketing costs.

“The Wild Robot” might end up doing better than all of those films because it has something that will sell to a wider audience more than an Optimus Prime origin story: a fable about parenthood. Based on Peter Brown's best-selling books, the film stars Lupita Nyong'o as Roz, a robot stranded in the wilderness who unexpectedly becomes the stepmother of an orphaned gosling. Her efforts to raise her new bird male lead her to befriend an entire forest of creatures, including a vicious fox named Finch, played by Pedro Pascal.

Most viewers may not be familiar with the mythos of “Transformers,” or have not read Robert Louis Stevenson, or been moved by the images of “Atlantis,” but there are few things more universally human than parenthood. Kris Bowers' colorful visuals and moving score helped The Wild Robot win critical acclaim. But it's the story of Roz figuring out how to raise a child over time that's the best selling point.

The demographic results reflect this. While 64% of the opening weekend audience came from family groups, 15% were 45 and older, according to EntTelligence. Universal insiders also noted to TheWrap that while audience ratings were strong across all demographics, with a 96% positive rating in PostTrak polls, the best results came from female moviegoers over 35.

With no major family-friendly titles hitting theaters until “Wicked” and “Moana 2” in mid-November, there's an open chance for “The Wild Robot” to surpass “Elemental's” $154 million domestic run, which is expected relied on incredible word of mouth following its release to make its comeback at the box office last year. And considering there are two more books in Brown's series to adapt, it wouldn't be a surprise if Universal greenlit a sequel in a few weeks.

Post 'The Wild Robot' Has What It Takes to Turn $35 Million Opening into a Long, Successful Run | The analysis first appeared on TheWrap.