Three Astros offseason storylines: Pursuing Alex Bregman, payroll and filling corners

HOUSTON – The Houston Astros prefer parades to postmortems, but here they sat on Oct. 3, dissecting their earliest end to the season in seven years. Manager Joe Espada reflected on his first season as coach, praising his club's resilience and claiming he was “excited” for spring training.

A far bigger question is who will join him in West Palm Beach next February. On Thursday, general manager Dana Brown had few clear answers, but used a cliché as a prop during a wide-ranging, 36-minute press conference.

“We're not taking anything off the table in terms of what we would do, whether it's making trades or signing a free agent,” Brown said. “We’re not taking anything off the table. The main focus will be to get back to the postseason and go as deep as we can and get back to the World Series.”

As Brown begins to examine everything on this table, here are the three storylines that will define the Astros' offseason.

Will they make a serious effort to re-sign Alex Bregman?

Bregman will receive an offer from the Astros. It's the bare minimum this franchise can do for one of its cornerstones. Whether this is understood as a PR ploy or an actual piece of good-faith negotiation is another question.

Three years ago, Houston tried the former in its failed attempt to retain shortstop Carlos Correa. By offering Correa a five-year, $160 million contract that the entire sport knew he would reject – and owner Jim Crane went on record confirming this to a Houston television station – the Astros managed to show the public that it was tried.

Repeating that routine this winter may be impossible. Jose Altuve's insistence last month that the Astros should keep Bregman could force Crane to step out of his comfort zone and offer a deal he has long been reluctant to approve. Failure to do so will at least lead to speculation that the face of Houston's franchise is unhappy.

Altuve has pleaded three times with the “front office people, the GM and the owners” to keep Bregman – an uncharacteristic request from a player who rarely speaks so openly and whose words resonate more than most around the Astros.

The fact that Altuve and Bregman are both represented by Scott Boras cannot be overlooked either. It stands to reason that Boras could use Altuve's insistence as impetus to increase Houston's offer to Bregman.

Anything less than the six-year, $151 million contract Boras negotiated for Matt Chapman in September should be considered a non-starter. Bregman is a year younger than Chapman, has better career offensive numbers and a playoff pedigree that few other free agents on this market can match.

Crane has never signed a contract longer than a six-year deal during his tenure as owner and has never guaranteed a player more than the $151 million Altuve received when he signed a contract extension before the 2018 season.

Asked Wednesday why he chose to re-sign Bregman, Altuve replied: “He’s our leader.

“Since the day he arrived here, the entire organization has changed in a better direction. He made this team much better. I think there’s hopefully a great chance for him to stay here and not just that, retire here.”

The biggest question is whether Crane and his advisory contingent are listening to the face of this franchise. Contracts of this magnitude are not a director's choice. It's Crane's decision.

Crane attended Thursday's press conference but left the room when the moderator mentioned there was only time for a few more questions. Crane hasn't spoken to the group since acquiring Justin Verlander at the trade deadline last season.

If the team decides to cut payroll, a Framber Valdez trade could be an option. (Kevin Jairaj/USA Today)

Will Crane maintain a huge payroll?

According to Spotrac, the Astros have $115,433,333 committed to seven returning major league players. Adding the $19.5 million that José Abreu will receive for doing nothing and the $11.5 million that Rafael Montero will earn as a Sugar Land Space Cowboy, Houston already has 146,433,333 in 2025 US dollars on his payroll.

According to MLB Trade Rumors' projections, the Astros could owe their 10 arbitration-eligible players $58,225,000. This number is just an estimate, but combined with the aforementioned nine players earning guaranteed money, it means Houston has a payroll of $204,658,333 before its offseason shopping begins.

Crane posted the highest payroll in franchise history this season and exceeded the luxury tax threshold for the second time in his tenure as owner, but it will be the first time he has paid taxes. Houston also passed the threshold in 2020 when penalties were eliminated due to COVID-19.

Whether Crane wants to wade those waters again is a mystery that Brown may have helped solve on Thursday.

“We've got to make some smart decisions: 'Are there younger players that we can move away and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and use that money elsewhere?'” Brown said. “I think we’re going to have those conversations and we might have to get creative.”

The first luxury tax threshold in 2025 is $241 million, meaning Houston has around $37 million available if Crane doesn't want to exceed it. None of his 10 arbitration-eligible players are also apparently non-tender candidates, raising the question of whether Brown could reduce payroll through trades.

Stagnant workhorse starter Framber Valdez and his projected arbitration salary of $17.8 million would be logical if there was a directive to cut payroll. It's dangerous to waste nearly 200 innings of a sub-3 ERA, but the emergence of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco, as well as the expected return of Luis Garcia, would soften the blow somewhat. Dana Brown could fill the rotation with cheaper alternatives that could streamline the Astros' pitching department or add some pitching depth in their upper minor leagues, be it with Ryan Gusto, Miguel Ullola or AJ Blubaugh.

Setup man Ryan Pressly has a no-trade clause in his contract, but given his demotion from the closer role in favor of Josh Hader and the pitching depth Houston has built, it's worth wondering if he'll move into one could turn into a viable candidate for a change. Pressly's $14 million club option converted to a player option after his 45th appearance this season. Exploring trades involving Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick – and paving the way for top prospect Jacob Melton – could also create space.

Who plays the corners?

Assuming Bregman tests free agency after the World Series, Houston will enter the winter without a third baseman or first baseman and few internal options to fill the gaps. Abreu's disastrous contract also remains in place, potentially limiting the scope of Houston's search for help.

According to FanGraphs, the Astros averaged minus-1.4 wins against their first basemen's replacements in the regular season. Only the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds received less value from this position.

Playing backup catcher Victor Caratini at first base for two playoff games showed how little faith Houston has in Jon Singleton, who hit .249/.325/.424 in 231 plate appearances after Abreu's firing. According to Sports Info Solutions, no qualified first baseman finished the season with fewer defensive runs saved than Singleton.

Brown needs to focus on finding a full-time solution this winter. Paul Goldschmidt will be a popular name given his roots in Houston, but his gradual decline must bring back some memories of Abreu. Pete Alonso will always be a possibility, especially if Bregman goes elsewhere and Crane wants to make a splash in response.

Christian Walker, Josh Bell and Carlos Santana are other free agent first basemen, although prospect Zach Dezenzo could play a role if Houston wants to keep Singleton as a platoon player against right-handed pitchers.

If Bregman does indeed depart, none of the team's internal candidates to replace him have posted impressive seasons that warrant serious consideration.

Dezenzo may have the most Major League-ready bat, but his defense at third base isn't nearly sophisticated enough to play every day. Former first-round pick Brice Matthews finished his season in Triple A, where he scored in 19 of his 42 at-bats. He also started only 21 of his 79 games at third base.

(Top photo by Alex Bregman: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)