Tropical Depression No. 14 is forming in the Gulf and has Florida in its sights before quickly developing into Hurricane Milton

MIAMI – A worrying change in the forecast now shows a dangerous hurricane may hit Florida's west coast later this week, bringing damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges and torrential rain.

The nascent cyclone was designated Tropical Depression Fourteen by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning, but is now expected to rapidly strengthen into a hurricane early to mid-next week and eventually reach Florida on Wednesday.

The TD14 forecast has evolved significantly over the past 24 hours and shows greater potential for a stronger storm.

“I don’t like the way this is developing at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” said Bryan Norcross, FOX weather hurricane specialist. “It just means there's a significantly higher chance (Saturday) than (Friday) that a memorable, devastating storm will hit Florida in the coming days.”

What's new in Tropical Depression 14?

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Tropical Depression Fourteen is located approximately 240 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. It has peak winds of 35 mph and is moving northeast at 3 mph.

What is the forecast for Tropical Depression 14?

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TD Fourteen is forecast to gain momentum early next week and turn east/northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength on Monday, with rapid strengthening early in the week, the NHC said. Once it reaches tropical storm strength, it will take on the name Milton.

“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have a significant storm off the coast (of Florida on Wednesday),” Norcross said. “How significant is that? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Good chances. And these models say hurricane. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category two, category three. We can’t even rule it out.”

He added: “There's really no good news in any of these different computer predictions, but here we are.”

The NHC shares these concerns.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, a strong hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to hit the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” the agency said Saturday morning.

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest rain is expected to come from the Interstate 4 corridor and farther south, where 5 to 8 inches of rain could fall over a widespread area over the next week, with nearly a foot of rain possible in some areas.

Since much of the rain will be spread over several days, widespread flooding is not expected. However, if repeated thunderstorms hit the same region, problems could arise.

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The region expected to be affected is further south of where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as places like Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

In addition to rainfall, rough seas will lead to the risk of increased currents and erosion on beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

FLORIDA ALLIGATOR FINDS A BREAK TO SUN ON THE BEACH IN RAINY WEATHER

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“The bottom line is that we have the potential for a significant, problematic and devastating storm heading toward Florida on Tuesday, Wednesday of next week,” Norcross said.

What to Expect for the Rest of Hurricane Season?

Waters in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf remain sufficiently warm for development, and October is typically the busiest month for landings in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, September 10th.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is November 21, when Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the Eastern Atlantic, but neither poses an immediate threat to landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.