UFC 307: Expert tips and best bets for Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

Alex Pereira will make his third title defense of 2024 by putting the UFC light heavyweight championship on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV). sets , with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 p.m. (ESPN+).

Pereira, No. 2 in the ESPN rankings, has won each of his last three title fights by knockout. But that hasn't deterred Rountree, who said he wants to continue fighting the champion. Rountree, No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the bout on a five-fight winning streak, including knockouts of his last two opponents.

In the co-main event, women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington seeks her first defense of the belt against former world champion Julianna Peña. Pennington is on a six-fight winning streak since January 2020. Meanwhile, Peña has not competed since losing the title in a rematch against Amanda Nunes in July 2022.

Andreas Hale spoke with retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst Alan Jouban to get his take on the main event, while women's bantamweight fighter Miesha Tate gave her opinion on the co-main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis to the card on the main event and other interesting bets he likes.

Editor's Note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Light heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Alan Jouban, retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst

How Pereira wins: Be patient. Rountree will be the most dangerous early on. Even if Pereira's fights don't last long, he should let the adrenaline wear off and turn the fight into a chess match. Although they are both stunning artists, Pereira is more experienced and has more tools. As Rountree's energy wanes, Pereira is able to take up boxing. Rountree also likes to jump forward with a power punch or two. If Pereira can land combinations, he can fend off the explosive power of Rountree. So let the fight settle down and start boxing to move the action forward as the fight moves into the later rounds.

How Rountree wins: Roundtree needs to hit the ground running early. Use this explosive power to get the job done early. He can't allow the fight to go into the later rounds, where his adrenaline will wear off and the technique can become sloppy, which Pereira will take advantage of. He must believe in himself and not become complacent.

X factor: Leg kicks. Rountree has devastating, explosive leg kicks. I know because I trained with him and he hurt my leg a lot. But that was southpaw versus southpaw. Against Pereira he has to use his inside leg kicks. We will see a leg kicking battle in this game. Both fighters use the power leg kick to the inside leg, which can often result in low blows or a broken foot because it can hit the kneecap. It will be interesting to see who comes out on top in this fight.

Forecast: Pereira wins by TKO.

Betting analysis

Odds are correct at time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Pereira wins by KO/TKO (-375), parlay effort. I like Pereira in this matchup, but I don't like the odds we're putting on him, even if he wins by KO/TKO.

This is a duel between two good strikers. Rountree is a threat to upset Pereira with his aggressiveness and high-level kickboxing, especially considering Pereira keeps his hands low. But Pereira has even more chances to win with his precise strike. Remember that Pereira trained with former UFC light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira. So don't be surprised if he's the first to shoot for a takedown. I'd go beyond 1.5 rounds here, but I'm assuming Pereira wins by KO/TKO and that gets your stake.

Women's Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña

Miesha Tate, UFC women's bantamweight

How Pennington wins: Be smart and calculated. Don't be surprised if she adds takedowns to her game plan against Peña. Pennington is also a big body at 135 pounds with great balance and she's really heavy when she sits on you. Her goal will also be crucial. She makes good use of different angles, making it difficult to predict where the punches and kicks are coming from.

How Peña wins: She needs to step forward and apply pressure. In this duel it will be important to close the distance and control the cage. Pennington is a clean and crisp striker, so Peña needs to press her against the cage and take advantage of her clinch work. Peña is good at collapsing, but she doesn't do it with reckless abandon. She has the underrated ability to close the distance and connect with her opponent using her body. And if she beats Pennington, Peña will be in the lead and is really good in that position.

X factor: Wrestling. Who is better at initiating the clinch and aiming for takedowns? Who will be first on the mat? It will be a battle all night to see who is first and that will impress the judges when there isn't much action in the fight.

Forecast: None. I'm too close to both to make a prediction.

Betting analysis

Odds are correct at time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Pennington wins (-170). Two factors do not speak for Peña in this duel. First, Peña has had a break of over two years. And secondly, she lacks technical hitting techniques. Her only way to win against Pennington is to rely on her wrestling in all five rounds, but I don't think that's going to happen. Pennington has a better punch and good takedown defense, and she has the cardio to keep up with Peña's pace. If you don't like the current moneyline odds, take Pennington and win by even-money decision.

Parker's best bets for the rest of the card

Odds are correct at time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Welterweight: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley

Buckley wins by decision. Buckley faces an opponent whose game plan he already knows. Thompson is a high-IQ fighter who looks to strike from a distance and use his lateral movement to evade Buckley's powerful attacks and takedown attempts. Buckley needs to add variety here because if he plays Thompson's game he could lose this fight. But if he mixes the takedowns and ground game, he can control the fight.

Take Buckley to win by decision because of Thompson's perseverance. “Wonderboy” will have his moments in this fight, but for Buckley the most important thing is the win and that will likely come by decision.

Strawweight: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington

Pennington wins (-175). Much like Peña, Esparza will have to rely on her wrestling to get a win on Saturday. Pennington has a high fight IQ with excellent takedown defense and will be the much better striker in this match. As long as Pennington can keep this fight going, she should have no problem getting the win here.