With the Astros out of the game, the Yankees have to take their chance

During difficult times during the regular season, New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone often noted that the team's path to the playoffs was still wide open, saying, “It's right in front of us.”

The same now applies to the American League title.

After 14 years of wandering the October Desert, the Yankees have stumbled upon an oasis. Or perhaps the surprises of the Baltimore Orioles and especially the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series are more akin to baseball parting the Red Sea.

The Yankees are suddenly favorites to win their first AL title since 2009, the year they last won the World Series. Boone may not say it out of respect for the competition, but yes, it's right in front of them. The Yankees will have no excuses if they can't survive an AL field that includes three Central clubs whose payroll is about a third of their own.

Of course, big-money teams don't always win, either in the regular season or in short postseason series. The Astros, whose payroll is more than twice that of the Detroit Tigers, were defeated at home. The Yankees' Division Series opponent, the Kansas City Royals, features projected AL MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. and two potential top-five players in AL Cy Young voting, Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. The other AL team with the bye, the Cleveland Guardians, won just two fewer games than the Yankees in the regular season.

Do you think Yankees fans want to hear it?

The Yankees are mostly healthy. It features two of the game's biggest stars: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. And they no longer have to deal with the Astros, who beat them in the ALCS in 2017, 2019 and 2022 and went 8-1 overall at Minute Maid Park.

Yes, the 2017 triumph came in a postseason in which the Astros illegally stole signs, but in four games at Minute Maid the Yankees scored three runs. Some Yankees fans would like to believe that the 2019 ALCS was also tainted, but the Jose Altuve buzzer controversy has never proven to be anything other than a social media creation. And in 2022, the Astros defeated the Yankees in four straight games, erasing once and for all any doubt about their superiority.

This season was similar. An eighth straight ALCS appearance for the Astros — and a fourth showdown with the Yankees — seemed entirely possible. The Orioles were 15-11 against the Yankees over the last two years but posed no serious threat, fading for months and scoring just one run in two games against the Royals. The Astros were another matter once again.

After starting the season 12-24, Houston rebounded to go 76-49 to win its fourth straight AL West title and seventh in the last eight years, the only exception being the shortened season 2020. But after a shocking loss to the Tigers, a team that was traded at the trade deadline and has virtually no starting rotation other than AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, the end of the Astros' dominance may finally be near.

Third baseman Alex Bregman is likely to leave as a free agent. Right fielder Kyle Tucker and left-hander Framber Valdez are eligible to hit the open market after next season. The Athletics Keith Law ranked the Astros' farm system 27th out of 30 in February – and at the deadline, the team traded three young players for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.

The Astros owe a combined $32 million in 2025 to first baseman Jose Abreu and reliever Rafael Montero, two players they signed while owner Jim Crane was operating without a general manager and then released in the second year of their three-year contracts. The return of Justin Verlander at last year's deadline cost the team top-100 prospect outfielder Drew Gilbert and outfielder/first baseman Ryan Clifford. Since rejoining the team, Verlander has had a 4.55 ERA in 28 starts.

The Yankees' foundation isn't exactly solid either, not since Soto isn't signed beyond this season. That's why this team's job is to seize the moment. The Orioles and Astros had the third- and fourth-best records in the AL, respectively. And now they're gone.

However, the Yankees are far from flawless. Their rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt could be as good as any in the postseason. But their bullpen will require skillful management from Boone. Their offense led the AL and ranked third in the majors in runs scored, but beyond Judge and Soto, their hitters' combined OPS was a Miami Marlins-like .676. The team also tends to be sloppy at times, both on the bases and in the field.

Likewise, the Central teams deserve more respect for playing in the same league as the Chicago White Sox, whose 121 losses were the most in AL/NL history. The Royals were 12:1 and the Tigers were 10:3 against the White Sox, while the Guardians were only 8:5. True, none of these teams have strong offenses – the Royals ranked 13th in the majors in runs scored, the Guardians were 14th and the Tigers were tied for 19th. However, each of them has shown a certain courage and a flair for victory. Like Judge and Soto, Witt Jr. and José Ramírez of the Guardians are among the top 10 players in the sport.

As underrated as the competition may be, Yankees fans won't settle for another collapse in October, not when the Yankees' payroll is $302 million compared to $114 million for the Royals, $104 million $103 million for the Tigers and $103 million for the Guardians. (Two Tigers players who earn a combined $39 million, shortstop Javier Báez and righty Kenta Maeda, aren't even on the team's postseason roster.)

Could the Yankees have asked for more than the early elimination of two of their biggest rivals? Call it an oasis. Let's call it a baseball parting of the Red Sea. But enough about water. For the Yankees, the American League playoffs ended better with champagne.

(Top photo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton: Luke Hales/Getty Images)